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Home / World / Trump dismisses TPP but may have missed a chance in China's trade battles

Trump dismisses TPP but may have missed a chance in China's trade battles



Trade experts said it was unlikely that either Abe or Trump would get through in this week's talks, but there might be a vague consensus. The president will not accept TPP, and Abe will not be able to fully support a separate free trade agreement with the US

Trump has also threatened Japan with steel and aluminum tariffs he has issued for other countries.

"Both Abe and Trump must leave this summit and say they get something to trade in. Frame is the word everyone uses," said Sheila Smith, senior fellow for Japan Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "The rhetoric will be a compromise and both sides can come out and say we won."

Tom Block, Washington Strategist strategist at Fundstrat, said he expects Japan to receive exemptions from steel and aluminum tariffs. As for TPP, "I think they'll say they talked about it, it came so far out of the left field, it was planned to be part of a counterbalance to growing China, so it made sense. but I think it will be a heavy sale to the Trump base, "he said.

There are many hurdles to the return of the US to TPP, but America may see its farmers and businesses disadvantaged because they are not there

Managing Director of the Eurasia Group, Kim Wallace, said member countries would have difficulty Trump's demands for an improvement of TPP in the US.

"It was a missed opportunity, not just economically, but geopolitically. This is part of the reason for developing and implementing trading blocks. You are playing really well with those in your sandbox, and with others not so much. If you are growth trajectories in terms of both economics and demographics, it's been known for at least a decade that this is a region you had to have a foo

New Zealand, a former member of TPP, said the US could not just spring back into the deal, although welcome, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told Reuters on Tuesday that she could see the US resumption but not without renegotiations, and that would have to be approved by all 1

1 countries, with Canada, Australia, Mexico, Malaysia, Singapore, Chile, Vietnam, Peru and Brunei.

"Trump is right that the TPP's US agriculture has a big would give s thrust. But we've seen this a couple of times too optimistic about the short-term opportunities, "said Daniel Clifton, director of policy research at Strategas Research," Trump's real focus is on securing a bilateral trade agreement with Japan and rebuilding TPP from bottom to top instead of from top. "

The US is now discussing TPP, as a trade war with China looks like it might be a battle of the will.The US has said they would pay $ 50 billion in tariffs Chinese goods and China responded by pledging to levy duties on US goods and agriculture, Trump also threatened to raise tariffs to another $ 100 billion of Chinese goods, and China says it will react

"The only reason the government dipped their toe into these TPP waters was that it was full. crawled anti-China movement. The overall strategic point of the TPP is to secure an economic ring fence … around China, "wrote Chris Krueger, Cowen Political Analyst.

The payouts from the TPP recovery could be important to the Trump administration, as with Allies on North Korea's nuclear ambitions works.

"It is embedding the United States in the future of Asia. It anchors us. It binds us. It is a strong commitment to shaping the economic future of the region, "said Smith

The US is in league with China, seeking to resolve the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico ahead of the Mexican elections in July. [19659002] "Once NAFTA is done, I think that perhaps attention will be paid, not just Japan, but to the region," Smith said, adding that TPP is a way to correct some of the issues that did not work or outdated in NAFTA ,

Domestic policy could continue to be a problem for the US TPP, and there are jokers, including the administration, which prioritizes it and which Congress might require a deal. "If you change in one or both houses of Congress Leadership, they may want a new trade agreement only after the next presidential elections, "said Jeffery Schott, senior Fellow for International Trade at the Peterson Institute for International Economics [196592002] "The other countries have shown that they can move forward without the US. There is increasing discrimination against US farmers and exporters in the region, "he said," and it will certainly deepen as TPP 11 enters into force. "

The road back to TPP could be difficult." There is a short-term not much that can be done because the agreement is not in force. The prospect of negotiating sessions will not be serious until next year. But the other countries are unlikely to make major revisions to the existing text in March in Chile, "said Schott.

Schott said it was not clear what Trump meant by a better deal or whether it was possible." Bigger and better would be more countries, meaning that there would be a greater economic reward, and this would probably happen once the agreement enters into force and joins other countries. Already, there are considerations in South Korea, Taiwan, Colombia and the UK others, "he said.

Wallace said it would be a" long shot "if the US tried to reunite, but it is unlikely

"The biggest drawback, in my view, is what is going on in the region and what has been going on in the region over the past 15 years in terms of economic growth in the region," said Wallace. "It is possible that the TPP Countries look like and say that we are satisfied with our trade relationship once the US has figured out what relationship they want. "

WATCH: Abe, Trump over TPP, North Korea


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