In order to win Minnesota, Mr. Trump would have to receive around 45,000 more votes than in 2016, while democratic turnout remains at about the same level as the last cycle. A survey commissioned by Alliance for a Better Minnesota, a Democratic group, prior to its visit on Thursday found that 49 percent of respondents supported an impeachment investigation, compared to 44 percent who said it was a bad one Idea stopped.
According to Public Policy Polling, 52 percent of respondents in today's poll would vote for a nameless Democratic opponent, compared to 42 percent who said they vote for Mr. Trump.
The Trump campaign officials focus more on the Iron Range, the mining communities in the north of the state. So in 2016, Mr. Trump won the eighth district of the USA in the north with 16 points ahead. President Barack Obama won it in 2012 with six points. Here, the Trump campaigners see a diverging urban-rural divide, while the election of progressive legislators like Ms. Omar has pushed voters toward democrats into urban areas.
Iron Rangers in northern Minnesota have fled the Democratic Party because they have promised to end the fossil fuel industry's policy of changing state. Mr. Peterson, representing the seventh district of Minnesota, won his race in 2012 with 26 points. In 2018 he celebrated a victory with a much lower lead of 4 points. In 2016, Mr. Trump won the seventh district with 31.5 points.
But the rural areas of the state have also suffered a loss of population, while in the suburbs where Mr Trump has done little to increase his attractiveness to the electorate, he has grown.
This week, Mr. Trump sought to capitalize on this divide by relying on a fight with Jacob Frey, the Democratic mayor of Minneapolis, who wanted to charge the campaign half a million dollars for additional security to host the President's visit. His campaign accused the mayor of having accused Mr. Trump of wanting to stop the rally.