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Trump misinterprets Beijing's pressure points



US. President Donald Trump speaks on March 27, 2019 at the White House Oval Office in Washington, DC.

Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images

USA. The surprise move by President Donald Trump to impose more tariffs on China is a grave misunderstanding of China's pressure points, according to Eurasia Group analysts.

The recent escalation signaled a return to the way Trump negotiated with China ̵

1; trying to build more influence Beijing in the midst of ongoing talks – before both sides agreed on a ceasefire at the end of June, wrote Michael Hirson, Paul Triolo and Jeffrey Wright in a Thursday note.

"The threat is a serious risk for Trump," they said. "It is probably a signal that he would prefer to reach an agreement on his terms before the 2020 election and is ready to use the tools at his disposal to pressure China to do so."

Trump said Thursday that the US will do so In a series of tweets, the president complained that China did not buy "large quantities" of US agricultural products, as it had agreed, and that the sale of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, to the United States was not stopped. However, China insisted that since July 19, millions of tons of US soybeans were shipped into the country, and many companies have abandoned orders for American products soybeans, cotton, pork and sorghum, the Chinese state media Xinhua said.

The announcement came just one day after both sides had concluded a round of trade talks in Shanghai and intended to continue negotiations in Washington in September.

"Extremely embarrassing" China has to give in

Eurasia Group analysts said it was possible that the tariff threat on Thursday should spur China to buy more American agricultural products, but they added that Beijing probably was not reacts as Trump hopes. It would be "extremely embarrassing for China to increase imports from the US under the threat of blackmail," they write.

Tapas Strickland, director of economics and markets at National Australia Bank, also said it was impossible for China to do so without losing face.

"It contradicts China's core demands for sincerity and the repeal of existing tariffs," he wrote in a Friday morning note, adding that it was possible that Beijing would retaliate against headwinds by tightening non-tariff trade barriers and other Chinese incentives.

Wang Yi, a high-ranking Chinese diplomat, said Friday that the US move was not the right or constructive way to resolve the trade dispute, Reuters reported.

Some of the US's core complaints in his dispute with China is forcing companies to hand over technology to Chinese parties to ensure equal market access, intellectual property infringement, lack of market access, and Beijing's subsidy system for domestic companies.

Trump's move is unlikely to work on these issues Eurasia Group analysts said Chinese President Xi Jinping "can not afford to be blackmailed by Trump into a deal, and those threats that arose on the day after talks concluded in Shanghai are likely to undermine the Chinese government's skepticism That Trump Will Ever Be Sustainable Will Reinforce Partners for a trade deal.

The Huawei Problem

If China does not strengthen its agricultural purchases from the US, this could complicate the matter around Huawei.

Since then, the Chinese tech giant has been in the Bureau of The List of Industrial and Security Authorities for the first time Since then, Washington's attitude has been weakening in May, which has virtually stopped business dealings with US companies, and agreed to grant US companies timely licensing decisions that would allow them to sell to the telecoms group.

Beijing, for its part wants the US to completely lift the restrictions on Huawei, but many US legislators still strongly reject any relief for Huawei. The company sees this as posing a major national security risk. "

" If China does not stop farming soon (Trump) becomes one again Step, which is deeply unpopular with China Falcons, have little to show, "said analysts of the Eurasia Group, referring to some American lawmakers. "If Trump withdraws from its promise to lend licenses to Huawei's US suppliers, it increases the likelihood that negotiations will be broken and tariffs introduced."


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