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Trump stands in the reelection in 2020 before historically bad numbers



His net approval rating (approval value minus disapproval value) was consistently negative.

But this number alone does not mean that Trump will be defeated in 2020. With conservative commentators such as Newt Gingrich and Hugh Hewitt rightly pointing out, President Ronald Reagan had similarly low approval for this point in his presidency before he achieved a Bless victory in his 1984 re-election.

New polls show, however, that the depth of opposition to Trump is considerably lower than to Reagan. This suggests that Trump could have a much more difficult task to accomplish his poor ratings than Reagan or any president in the modern era of opinion.

A staggering 56% of voters said they would definitely vote against Trump in the 2020 parliamentary elections, compared to 28% who said they would definitely vote for him, and 1
4% who would consider voting vote for him, according to ABC News / Washington Post poll.

Compare this to Reagan's Garth analysis in February 1983. (Exactly at this point in Reagan's presidency). Only 32% of voters said they would definitely vote against Reagan, 31% said they would vote for another, and 26% said they would definitely support Reagan.

In other words, with a lead of 24 points, more citizens say they definitely vote against Trump in 2020 than those who said they would definitely vote against Reagan in the 1984 cycle.

Interestingly, Reagan and Trump had a similar core base. The 26% who say they definitely vote for Reagan are only 2 points below the 28% who say they would definitely vote for Trump.

However, Reagan had a number of potential followers that Trump apparently lacks. More than double the percentage of voters who voted at least for the election of Reagan (31%) than for Trump (14%). (Another 10% said they did not know about Reagan, while only 1% said so for Trump.) Those who would definitely vote for Reagan and consider voting for him reached 57%. For Trump it is only 42%.

In fact, Trump clearly has the most resolute resistance to all the presidents for whom this question has been asked.

Only 32% said in an January 2003 Ipsos poll that they would definitely vote against George W. Bush. A 40% majority said they would definitely vote for him, while 25% would vote for Bush. Together, 65% said they would at least think about voting for Bush.

For Obama, the highest "definitely against" I've found for him in 2011 was 47% in a June ABC News / Washington Post poll. Even in its worst poll, 52% said they would either definitely vote for him (27%) or vote for him (25%). Again this number is now 42% for Trump, 10 points lower.

Now, before we get carried away too much, of course I should realize that we are still nearly two years away from the 2020 election. Many things can change those numbers.

But these statistics give the president a very grim picture. Anyone who thinks Trump can easily convince their doubters is very wrong.

The ABC News / Washington Post poll is just the latest indication that Trump's opposition is much more firmly established than would be possible with the consent of respondents alone.

As I mentioned earlier, 47% of Americans say that they believe Trump's presidency will not succeed. This means that Americans are not simply rejecting Trump at the moment, but believing that they will never change their minds about him. That's 47% more than a survey taken at any one time by a presidency over the past 25 years. This goes well into the second half of George W. Bush's second term, after Hurricane Katrina, the Republicans' poor stop-overs in 2006, and an Iraq war that had gone south in the minds of Americans.
A previous Marist College survey found that the same percentage (45%) of Americans think Trump performs poorly (on a scale that ranges from excellent to fairly good and fair to poor) President Richard Nixon a bad job two weeks before his resignation.


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