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Trump's chances to win a second term are narrowing



In an overlapping fashion, the election results and hearings – notably Trump's characteristic bellicose response to them – highlighted each of his three biggest potential weaknesses in the 2020 election and the balancing strengths that could enable him to overcome those weaknesses.

The three biggest challenges facing Trump 2020, many analysts agree with:

  • An incessantly confrontational personal style that seems to alienate a wide mass of female voters, including some non-college white women who win Influenced in 2016. This behavior was exemplified by Trump's Tweet last week in which he bitterly attacked former US Ambassador to the Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch.

Trump's most important political asset on the other side of the ledger is its success in consolidation and energy supply The republican base and the deepening of GOP dominance among white voters who live outside the major population centers are considered Protestant Christians or have no university degree especially the men in each of these groups.

As an impeachment struggle and elections outside the year Have unfolded this fall simultaneously, they have shed light on all these dynamics. The events, however, underline the tendencies that threaten Trump even more than those that benefit him.

Of these menacing tendencies for the president, the continued erosion of the GOP in well-educated and prosperous suburbs across the country is the clearest. Trump's message of resistance to cultural and demographic change has alienated voters who are otherwise drawn to republican economic policies. Sharp declines for Republican candidates in suburban areas this month were a common feature of the Democratic takeover of the two chambers of the Legislature of the State of Virginia and the victories of the party in Kentucky and Louisiana, two states that have strongly opposed the US GOP , (The effect was less pronounced in ruby ​​Mississippi, one of the country's most determined conservative states, where Republicans retained control of the governorship this month.)

"They only lose large chunks of their previous constituents and do so I do not know exactly what to do about it, "says the experienced Democratic strategist James Carville of New Orleans.

Tom Davis, a former Republican US representative from the northern suburbs of Virginia, who held the presidency of the National Republican Congressional Committee, notes that GOP candidates this fall were generally good in suburbs when polls lower failed, z. In other state-wide offices in Kentucky and in the legislative seats of the state of Louisiana. But he said the party could not reduce the declines it suffered in the top races in these well-educated suburbs.

"You can not ignore it," said Davis, who is now a lobbyist in Washington. "Both (gubernatorial) losses went to them and the loss of the legislature in Virginia, they bleed in the suburbs at that time."

Changes in the Suburbs

[19659002] The reorientation of the suburbs is preceded by Trump. The parties have shifted their class support since the early 1990s, and the Democrats have improved their performance among well-educated white voters and the GOP is establishing a growing influence on whites of the working class without a college degree. (Democrats continue to dominate non-white voters at all levels of education.) But this process – which I called class reversal – has accelerated considerably under him.

The mid-term elections in 2018 saw Republican displaced in suburban areas of the country, including metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas, which had previously resisted the general shift towards the Democrats.

The main message of the 2019 election was that the rebound of Trump's definition of the GOP continued beyond the traditionally democratized terrain. Democrats consolidated their advantage this fall in the suburbs of Washington and Richmond, which had recently been a Republican; made gains during the governorship of Kentucky in the northern suburbs of the state, which act as a dormitory for Cincinnati; and made great strides in wealthier white communities around New Orleans and Baton Rouge last weekend in the victory of Democrat John Bel Edwards in Louisiana.
When Bel Edwards was first elected in 2015, he lost the predominantly white suburban communities of East Jefferson Parish outside of New Orleans by nearly 20 percentage points. on Saturday he even ran there, according to calculations by J. Miles Coleman an analyst for the Crystal Ball website of the University of Virginia.

Carville notes that the suburban communities of East Jefferson Parish have moved away from it The GOP on Saturday was the place where the Republican Party first took root in the state. The same pattern, he noted, applied to Texas, where the suburbs of Dallas, which represented the first bridgehead of the GOP in the 1960s, became highly democratic in the 2018 Senate race.

"This is the birthplace of Republicanism in Louisiana, Jefferson Parish," said Carville. "See the north side of Dallas, the west side of Houston, and the suburbs of Atlanta. Look at Northern Kentucky. Boom.

Given these trends, Carville and other Democrats say, the party could win more seats in the South Suburban home in 2020, including opportunities outside Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Austin, and possibly North Carolina, as state courts enforce the GOP – controlled legislation to draw new maps there.

The flip side of GOP's suburban erosion under Trump was strengthening its influence on small towns and rural communities. With the exception of a certain decline for Republican Governor Matt Bevin in some rural counties in eastern Kentucky, the GOP's nominees this year continue to have large profit margins and robust participation from rural and small town voters, most notably on Trump's visits The states hold elections.

The problem for the Republicans was that Trump's polarizing presidency, bolstered by the very militant message he delivered in his election campaign visits to these states, generated at least as much voter turnout in key democratic constituencies in urban centers.

In Kentucky, Andy Beshear, the Democrat who won the governors' race, scored a staggering 283,000 more votes than the party's last governor candidate in 2015, Jack Conway. Almost two-thirds of this increase came from the major cities and counties of the state; According to Bill Bishop, the publisher of The Daily Yonder, only the two largest population centers in Kentucky, Louisville and Lexington, were responsible for 40% of Democrats' votes.

Similarly, the heavily African-American Orleans community in Louisiana on Saturday gave Bel Edwards a net margin of nearly 102,000 votes; In 2015, he had around 70,000 votes in New Orleans.

As Louisiana's election analyst Edward Chervenak, longtime political reporter Tyler Bridges of The Advocate New Orleans, said, "Trump's results will fuel the opposition as well as mobilize followers."

Some Win But Lose More

A GOP strategist who asked not to be identified while discussing internal party calculations said that among Republican politicians privately growing concerns over the Impact of Trump's Improvement of Party Position Smaller places are losing their population while losing their position in the growing city centers and suburbs.

"Rural areas are becoming less democratic, but the suburbs, which are much more densely populated, are becoming less and less Republican," the strategist said. "Given the natural evolution and migration of the population, you swap 8 (Republican) votes against 10 (Democratic), maybe 9 against 10, but never 11 against 10. Never." That's the problem. " 19659002] Mike Murphy, a longtime GOP strategist who is critical of Trump, says the GOP could regain ground in suburbs in 2020, when Democrats nominate a top liberal candidate such as Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont or Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who some consider this voter as a threat to the economy. But without that, he says, the Republicans and Trump could not have reached the bottom of their suburban decline.

That's partly so, he says, because university-educated voters, who according to polls pay the most attention to the news, are likely to continue harassing Trump on the impeachment revelations.

"There is room for worsening, as I think the impeachment of higher educated voters will have a growing impact," Murphy said in an e-mail depth of his influence on his hardened supporters. Polls have not seen any significant decline in its approval rate since the controversy began, especially among Republican voters. This unwavering party base support has fueled the almost undivided Republican loyalty to the House Intelligence Committee during hearings. The refusal of almost all elected Republican officials to question Trump's behavior in Ukraine has in turn helped him maintain his firm support among GOP voters who have not heard any criticism from the president of partisan officials they trust, let alone the conservative information delivery system takes center stage over Fox News.

The problem for Trump is that his reputation has stabilized at a time when his approval rating is between 40 and 45% at best, and the majority of Americans say they disapprove of his performance. Most worrying for the president is that he has lost ground compared to his participation in the 2016 elections, according to polls among two major white-voting voters who are usually just Republicans: white college graduates and white women without a college degree.

The impeachment can complicate Trump's position with each of these groups. White graduate students often use political news and may therefore be particularly sensitive to revelations resulting from Trump's actions.

Women workers are worried

[19659002] White working-class women could be even more important to Trump's fate. They were crucial to his victory in 2016: every major source of data shows he has won them by at least 20 percentage points. Exit surveys revealed that Trump won significantly more women than Mitt Romney in 2012 in the three Rust Belt states that gave him the edge – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

But exit surveys in 2018 showed strong evidence of women at least something withdrawn from the GOP. Almost all surveys show that he still has problems with these workers.

A poll by Marquette University in Wisconsin states that Trump's approval rate among white non-college women during his presidency is only 42% on average. The latest poll at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania revealed that he led Democrat Joe Biden by just 5 percentage points (after defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016 with a 20-point lead). Recent state surveys by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Cook Political Report revealed that Trump was only recognized by 42% in Michigan, 43% in Wisconsin and 46% in Pennsylvania. Nationwide, an average of weekly polls conducted since July by the Nationscape Project, launched by the Democracy Fund and UCLA political scientists, found that Trump's approval among white women outside the college who are not Protestant Christians – the White women in the rust belt are the majority outside the college – only 41%.

These white women outside college said in polls much less often than their white counterparts that Trump did anything wrong in Ukraine or that he deserves to be removed from office. However, focus group surveys and research have consistently shown that many of them disapprove of Trump's behavior, language and belligerence.

The danger to Trump is that he is confrontational in responding to the threat of impeachment while captivating many men at his base. This may exacerbate these concerns among some workers. Stanley B. Greenberg, the seasoned Democratic pollster, believes that Trump's derogatory attack on former ambassador Yovanovitch could raise female voice concerns about his general behavior and his specific treatment of women.

"I bet we'll look back and say that this is the time when things took a new turn, where you witnessed a gender-specific tsunami that pervaded every group and that included the White Workers turned against him. " Said Greenberg. "It obviously happened already, I suppose it speeds things up."

Behavior is not the only problem for Trump with workers, Greenberg believes. According to polls, they responded poorly to his efforts to lift the Affordable Care Act 2017. Greenberg, like many party strategists, believes that Democratic support for the expansion of Medicaid to more uninsured is a key element of party campaigns in Virginia, Louisiana, and Kentucky alike this year – was of particular interest to women, including those in the White Working class.

"I bet there were more women than anyone else who responded to Democratic support for the extension of Medicaid," he said.

The GOP strategist who asked not to be identified agrees that Republicans are facing a problem with these women, but believes it is more rooted in personal than political issues. In focus groups, the strategist said, it's common to hear from White Workers that they agree with many of Trump's policies, but can not accept his personal behavior.

"Even if you look at white women who are small, they like what they do, but their style and drama are very cautious," the strategist said. "The drama of everything is tired."

The likelihood that Parliament will accuse Trump, like the 2019 election results, does not guarantee that it will be defeated next year. But they shape the way to another term that is realistically available to him. Although the impeachment hearings do not upset the minority of voters who endorse Trump's accomplishments, there are indications that they are resisting the majority who do not: voters who say they disapprove Trump's work, for example, more than 90% recently said in a Quinnipiac survey that he is pursuing his personal interest and not national interest in Ukraine.

Such trends suggest that Trump, in order to gain another term, is likely to motivate another turnout among his key advocates of Blue Collar, Evangelical, and non-urban whites, without provoking the compensatory mobilization among Democrats who led the Democrats Elections 2017, 2018 and again this fall became clear.

Trump could accomplish this feat in just enough of the few real swing states to win an electoral college majority. The events of recent weeks – both on the campaign trail and in the session hall of the congress, where the impeachment investigation takes place – underline how tight a tightrope he is.


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