In an overlapping fashion, the election results and hearings – notably Trump's characteristic bellicose response to them – highlighted each of his three biggest potential weaknesses in the 2020 election and the balancing strengths that could enable him to overcome those weaknesses.
The three biggest challenges facing Trump 2020, many analysts agree with:
- An incessantly confrontational personal style that seems to alienate a wide mass of female voters, including some non-college white women who win Influenced in 2016. This behavior was exemplified by Trump's Tweet last week in which he bitterly attacked former US Ambassador to the Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch.
Trump's most important political asset on the other side of the ledger is its success in consolidation and energy supply The republican base and the deepening of GOP dominance among white voters who live outside the major population centers are considered Protestant Christians or have no university degree especially the men in each of these groups.
As an impeachment struggle and elections outside the year Have unfolded this fall simultaneously, they have shed light on all these dynamics. The events, however, underline the tendencies that threaten Trump even more than those that benefit him.
Of these menacing tendencies for the president, the continued erosion of the GOP in well-educated and prosperous suburbs across the country is the clearest. Trump's message of resistance to cultural and demographic change has alienated voters who are otherwise drawn to republican economic policies. Sharp declines for Republican candidates in suburban areas this month were a common feature of the Democratic takeover of the two chambers of the Legislature of the State of Virginia and the victories of the party in Kentucky and Louisiana, two states that have strongly opposed the US GOP , (The effect was less pronounced in ruby Mississippi, one of the country's most determined conservative states, where Republicans retained control of the governorship this month.)
"They only lose large chunks of their previous constituents and do so I do not know exactly what to do about it, "says the experienced Democratic strategist James Carville of New Orleans.
Tom Davis, a former Republican US representative from the northern suburbs of Virginia, who held the presidency of the National Republican Congressional Committee, notes that GOP candidates this fall were generally good in suburbs when polls lower failed, z. In other state-wide offices in Kentucky and in the legislative seats of the state of Louisiana. But he said the party could not reduce the declines it suffered in the top races in these well-educated suburbs.
"You can not ignore it," said Davis, who is now a lobbyist in Washington. "Both (gubernatorial) losses went to them and the loss of the legislature in Virginia, they bleed in the suburbs at that time."
Changes in the Suburbs
 The reorientation of the suburbs is preceded by Trump. The parties have shifted their class support since the early 1990s, and the Democrats have improved their performance among well-educated white voters and the GOP is establishing a growing influence on whites of the working class without a college degree. (Democrats continue to dominate non-white voters at all levels of education.) But this process – which I called class reversal – has accelerated considerably under him.
The mid-term elections in 2018 saw Republican displaced in suburban areas of the country, including metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas, which had previously resisted the general shift towards the Democrats.
Carville notes that the suburban communities of East Jefferson Parish have moved away from it The GOP on Saturday was the place where the Republican Party first took root in the state. The same pattern, he noted, applied to Texas, where the suburbs of Dallas, which represented the first bridgehead of the GOP in the 1960s, became highly democratic in the 2018 Senate race.
"This is the birthplace of Republicanism in Louisiana, Jefferson Parish," said Carville. "See the north side of Dallas, the west side of Houston, and the suburbs of Atlanta. Look at Northern Kentucky. Boom.
Given these trends, Carville and other Democrats say, the party could win more seats in the South Suburban home in 2020, including opportunities outside Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Austin, and possibly North Carolina, as state courts enforce the GOP – controlled legislation to draw new maps there.
The flip side of GOP's suburban erosion under Trump was strengthening its influence on small towns and rural communities. With the exception of a certain decline for Republican Governor Matt Bevin in some rural counties in eastern Kentucky, the GOP's nominees this year continue to have large profit margins and robust participation from rural and small town voters, most notably on Trump's visits The states hold elections.
The problem for the Republicans was that Trump's polarizing presidency, bolstered by the very militant message he delivered in his election campaign visits to these states, generated at least as much voter turnout in key democratic constituencies in urban centers.
Similarly, the heavily African-American Orleans community in Louisiana on Saturday gave Bel Edwards a net margin of nearly 102,000 votes; In 2015, he had around 70,000 votes in New Orleans.
Some Win But Lose More
A GOP strategist who asked not to be identified while discussing internal party calculations said that among Republican politicians privately growing concerns over the Impact of Trump's Improvement of Party Position Smaller places are losing their population while losing their position in the growing city centers and suburbs.
"Rural areas are becoming less democratic, but the suburbs, which are much more densely populated, are becoming less and less Republican," the strategist said. "Given the natural evolution and migration of the population, you swap 8 (Republican) votes against 10 (Democratic), maybe 9 against 10, but never 11 against 10. Never." That's the problem. " 19659002] Mike Murphy, a longtime GOP strategist who is critical of Trump, says the GOP could regain ground in suburbs in 2020, when Democrats nominate a top liberal candidate such as Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont or Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who some consider this voter as a threat to the economy. But without that, he says, the Republicans and Trump could not have reached the bottom of their suburban decline.
That's partly so, he says, because university-educated voters, who according to polls pay the most attention to the news, are likely to continue harassing Trump on the impeachment revelations.
"There is room for worsening, as I think the impeachment of higher educated voters will have a growing impact," Murphy said in an e-mail depth of his influence on his hardened supporters. Polls have not seen any significant decline in its approval rate since the controversy began, especially among Republican voters. This unwavering party base support has fueled the almost undivided Republican loyalty to the House Intelligence Committee during hearings. The refusal of almost all elected Republican officials to question Trump's behavior in Ukraine has in turn helped him maintain his firm support among GOP voters who have not heard any criticism from the president of partisan officials they trust, let alone the conservative information delivery system takes center stage over Fox News.