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Trump's worst enemy when he starts his re-election bid could be himself

CHARLESTON, SC – On the surface, Chris Moody and Steve Neal do not have much in common, other than that: They are pleased to be voting for President Donald Trump again in 2020.

Moody, a whiter 24 A one-year-old daycare worker and a graduate of Marshall University in Charleston, West Virginia, is something of a walking board for the president's re-election. He strolled here on Saturday in the King's Leaf Cigar Lounge. He wore a T-shirt with an impressionistic version of Trump's face and the words, "If Trump is not your president, this is not your country, you're not a tree, move." ] He is very fond of a strong sentiment fueled by Trump and shared by many of his constituents ̵

1; that Trump is constantly and unfairly attacked by Democrats, the media and the establishment forces in Washington.

"I can not resist people talking about him," Moody said.

Neal, a black 49-year-old car financial adviser using his sparkling white Lexus to drive Uber routes on the side, said his support for Trump was a source of ribs in his Inner Hardcore Democratic family in this Charleston and that he seldom talks about his politics when he is not asked.

"My voice speaks strong enough," said Neal.

These two types play a key role in Trump's success or failure as he seeks a second term in office, which few would have thought possible when he descended an escalator of his eponymous skyscraper in Manhattan four years ago for the first time without ever having received a single vote for an office.

Now Trump is the undisputed center of the political universe Following his re-election on Tuesday at the Amway Center in Orlando, he has redefined the Republican Party, the tenor of public discourse in the US, and the country's domestic and international perceptions. He does so with the shadow of a possible impeachment case against the high-stakes house that towers over his shoulder – a prospect that puts him in painful misgivings about the results of Robert Mueller and, on the other hand, as a bearer of hope for new ones Voters to defend his presidency from overzealous opponents.

For while Trump has formed the most loyal base of followers in modern history, he has also alienated and mobilized large sections of the electorate. From liberal city democrats to ex-Republican suburbanites, deterred by his crass demeanor, his harsh positions in social policy and his views on the executive and nationalism that shatter the pillars of democratic governance in the West.

The Biggest Challenge Trump Fights The election campaign field transforms the energy of its own base into a wave that creates new voters. While much of it amounts to the efficacy of a state-of-the-art data operation aimed at expanding its base by finding and finding supporters who usually do not vote, part of it will depend on the evangelization of people like Moody and Neal the the last time was there for him.

That way, Trump could be his worst enemy.

Neal said he was satisfied with the economy and had a "stronger arm" in foreign policy. But the "stupid stuff" that Trump says makes it so difficult to effectively stand up for him that Neal does not really try.

"The problem is Trump's whole personality," he said.

Modern History and Recent Surveys Suggest that Trump has little leeway for mistakes in a nation that is sharp and bitterly divided in their political loyalties. Like George W. Bush, Trump managed to win a first term while losing the referendum, and public and private polls show his work is cut out for him if he wants to regain victory.

Recent polls by Fox News and Quinnipiac University have revealed that Trump is lagging behind a number of Democratic rivals – former vice president Joe Biden leads with 10 and 13 points, respectively.

The latest coverage, at least from the public relations point of view, is more disturbing of the internal Trump polls by ABC News and the March New York Times, which showed him behind Biden in almost all major swing states. Biden had double-digit leads in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – states that together make up more than its 2016 profit margin – and NBC reported on Sunday that Trump has cut ties with two people involved in its US polls were after the publication of the data.

Tony Fabrizio, the campaign's largest survey participant, said the numbers involved a worst-case scenario with a poor turnout model, indicating that they did not reflect the true state of the race. [19659002] Modeling is particularly important when it comes to Trump, since his strategy necessarily aims to change the group of people who appear in the polls in 2020 – and he'll try to do that while the Democrats work on it He is confronted with both his own upswing and the suspension of Trump voters who were rejected by his presidency until then.

Trump's approval rate has been negative almost all of the time His presidency and the latest ranking of the FiveThirtyEight.com numbers thugs amount to 42.6 percent. But his allies say he's in great shape as he prepares for the Orlando Rally and the upcoming race.

And Chris Wilson, an experienced Republican pollster and political data analyst, said he has not put much money on the stock market. He now sees traditional polls based on their turnout models in recent elections – which may not reflect the reality of 2020 if Trump succeeds in addressing and excluding new voters.

"I'm very skeptical of any poll that pulls theirs today. Try it out by asking people if they want to vote or not," he said. He recently ran a poll based on voter data modeling, showing Trump in much better position in key swing states – including small leads in Florida and Wisconsin.

The other factor that is currently undetectable is the effect of Trump's campaign against his later Democratic opponent, Wilson said.

"Donald Trump will have a few months, five or six, to make the candidate completely undrinkable," he said.

Trump's preference for a personal attack could ultimately recover his own base and depressive agitation among Democrats, but there is also the danger that this will have the opposite effect.

After years of Twitter feuding and insulting everyone, from world leaders to professional athletes, there is some social stigma attached to Trump in certain circles that could make it harder for him to reap the benefits of full support from his Partisan army.

In addition, the behavior of the president may vote voters who are familiar with his policies.

While less important in Moody's home state of West Virginia and Neal's South Carolina, where Trump will certainly win easily, this could be a significant factor in the handful of swing states in an interview with NBC News told Tom Oestreich, 64, of Tucson, Arizona, that he chose Trump because he could not vote for Clinton. He would have voted for former Vice President Joe Biden in 2016 if Biden had been the Democratic candidate, he said, but he now sees the Democratic leader as a "stumbling block" on the campaign and "a bit too old". [19659002] Oestreich, a self-described moderate Republican, said he was inclined towards Trump because of the economic situation and his dealings with foreign affairs, but bothered by what he called the president sounding like he had a "fifth grade ". He takes another look at the mayor of South Bend, Pete Buttigieg.

"I'm not crazy about Buttigieg, but he has a great pedigree, a great CV," Oestreich said of the Rhodes scholar and Afghanistan war veteran. "If it matters to both of them … there is a very good chance I could vote for him."

Democrats believe they have a chance to win over Arizona for the second time since Harry Truman won them in 1948, in part because Trump gave the state only three-and-a-half percentage points in 2016 and partly because they were there Last year, for the first time since 1988, won a race in the Senate.

But so it has been Since the start of his first presidential election, Trump can count on the tireless support of a loyal base more than willing to face anyone who stands in his way – whether it's Democrats or wavering Republicans is. Many of them named him in almost epic terms as their champion.

"I think he's doing well," said Trump voter Kitty Klipstine from Dayton, Ohio, in an interview for Hardball's "The Deciders," which aired on MSNBC at 10 pm ET Monday. "It's just that he fights against Congress, really against both parties, which is a shame because the Republicans should support him all the way."

Like Klipstine, Roger Carey of Ankeny, Iowa, is proud of the work Trump has done and sees deficiencies in the resistance he encountered in Washington.

"I think it's good that he did the things he ran on," Carey said. "I like that he wants to support our borders and protect our borders, positive things for the country – but I would appreciate it if Congress supports him and does things."

The trick for the president is to convince everyone to agree with Carey – but did not vote for Trump last time – to support his bid to keep the job.

– Maura Barrett reported from Boone, Iowa, and Cal Perry from Dayton, Ohio

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