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Two signs of life in the Atlantic hurricane season as Labor Day Approaches




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A few weeks ago, virtually every seasonal hurricane forecaster downgraded his forecasts for the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, citing as the main reasons that Atlantic waters are relatively cool El It was expected that Nino would evolve, I wrote a Forbes article on the new projections and why the meteorologists made the adjustments. There were two things I mentioned in this article: First, the statistical peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean in September Secondly, I warned "even with all the talk about & # 39; under normal conditions & # 39; Please stay diligent in coastal communities because it only needs one storm. " When I discard my Forbes hat and put on my meteorologist's cap I see two signs of life indicating that the hurricane season in the Atlantic is coming out of slumber, and one them could affect the US

Satellite imagery showing tropical activity from Friday morning ning August 31, 2018 NOAA and tropicaltidbits.com

Meteorologist and FEMA Strategic Planner Michael Lowry summed it up best with this tweet

Only two years in the modern record – 1968 and 1994 – did not record #September #Hurricane. @NWSNHC predicts # PTC6 as hurricane by Sunday (September 2) .The average number of Atlantic hurricanes in September is three.

Lowry a former hurricane expert in The Weather Channel, points out that it's unusual to fail in September ne tropical activities. The graph below shows where storms normally form in September and we see activity at these locations. At this time, the National Hurricane Center is tracking two systems and possibly more in the coming weeks. An opinion on the potential tropical cyclone Six, issued at 8:00 am AST Friday, provides the latest information:

At 800 am AST (1200 UTC) the disturbance was near the latitude
13, 7 north, length 21.8 West centered. The system is moving west-northwest near 19 km / h (19 km / h), and this slightly higher-speed movement is expected for the next three to four days. The forecast route is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical storm
later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km / h) with higher gusts. Reinforcement is predicted in the next few days, and it is expected that the disruption will become a tropical storm today or Saturday.

Where hurricanes form each month NOAA

Cape Verdean hurricanes form within 600 years of Cape Verde islands, especially in August or September. At this time of year, there is typically plenty of tropical wave activity, deep warm water, and weaker wind shear. However, the water temperatures in this region were unusually cold during the summer. The sea surface temperatures (below) west of the Cape Verde Islands are beginning to increase slowly to 28 to 30 degrees Celsius, which is necessary for the optimal development of tropical cyclones. The National Hurricane Center gives this "typical" Cape Verde system a 90% chance to move on to "Frances" over the next 2 to 5 days. Our Best Models Have No Storm Approaching the American Mainland or the Caribbean Islands

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) NOAA

However, the National Hurricane Center is observing a system that is a little closer to the US Steam cruise or vacation plans in the Caribbean Islands. It's a system people along the Gulf Coast will need to watch next week. The latest findings from the meteorologists of the National Hurricane Center are:

Unorganized cloudiness and chill from Hispaniola east to
the Leeward Islands and adjacent waters are associated with a
tropical wave, with an upper level Trough. This activity
is expected to penetrate westward to the northwest and intensify the rain
in parts of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and Florida by early next week. Strong upper winds will prevent development of this system during the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could become less hostile if the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Only part of the story, the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are favorable for storm development, but other meteorological factors must be taken into account in the coming days.

In the future, some tropical experts have pointed out the possibility of more tropical activity in the next 1 to 2 weeks based on model projections. However, the National Hurricane Center tweeted this wise warning :

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook offers 48 hours and 5 days of opportunity for tropical cyclone formation. Long-term model predictions of tropical cyclone formation beyond 5 days are often unreliable and can show large variability between models and from one model cycle to the next.

Climatologically, the 6th named storm in the Atlantic Ocean is around 8 September. I will write this on August 31st. If the mentioned Cape Verde system gets a name, it will be the sixth storm of the season (Frances). The lesson is that although a "below normal" season was projected, we are currently ahead of the climatological average.

When named storms are usually expected during the Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA

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A few weeks ago, virtually every seasonal hurricane forecaster downgraded his projections for the Atlantic hurricane season, the main reasons being that the Atlantic waters were relatively cool and expected to become one I wrote a Forbes article on the new projections and why the meteorologists made the adjustments, there were two things that I wanted to repeat in this article: the peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic is September, and secondly, I warned "even with all the talk about & # 39; under normal conditions & # 39; please stay diligent in the coastal communities, as it only takes one storm. " When I lift off my Forbes contributor hat and place on my meteorologist cap, I see two signs of life suggesting that the Atlantic hurricane season wakes up from its slumber and one of them could affect the US

Satellite images with tropical activity on Friday morning August 31, 2018 NOAA and tropicaltidbits.com

Meteorologist and FEMA strategic planner Michael Lowry summed it up best with this tweet

Only two years in the modern record – 1968 and 1994 – did not register #September #Hurricane. @NWSNHC predicts # PTC6 as hurricane by Sunday (September 2) .The average number of hurricanes in the Atlantic in September is three.

Lowry a former hurricane expert at The Weather Channel, points out that it's unusual to see no one in September exercise tropical activities. The graph below shows where storms normally form in September and we see activity at these locations. At this time, the National Hurricane Center is tracking two systems and possibly more in the coming weeks. An opinion on Tropical Cyclone Six, published at 8:00 am AST Friday, provides the latest information:

At around 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the fault was close to latitude
13.7 North, 21.8 West longitude. The system is moving west-northwest near 19 km / h (19 km / h), and this slightly higher-speed movement is expected for the next three to four days (19459032). The forecast route is expected to move near or above the southern Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical storm
later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km / h) with higher gusts. Reinforcement is predicted for the next few days, and it is expected that the disruption will become a tropical storm later this Saturday or Saturday.

Where hurricanes can form each month. NOAA

Cape Verdean hurricanes form mainly in August or September within 600 miles of the Cape Verde Islands. At this time of year, there is typically plenty of tropical wave activity, deep warm water, and weaker wind shear. However, the water temperatures in this region were unusually cold during the summer. The sea surface temperatures (below) west of the Cape Verde Islands are beginning to increase slowly to 28 to 30 degrees Celsius, which is necessary for the optimal development of tropical cyclones. The National Hurricane Center gives this "typical" Cape Verde system a 90% chance to move on to "Frances" over the next 2 to 5 days. Our best models do not have the storm approaching the American mainland or the Caribbean islands.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) NOAA

However, the National Hurricane Center observes a system a bit closer to the US could dampen some of the Labor Cruises or vacation plans in the Caribbean Islands. It's a system people along the Gulf Coast will need to watch next week. The latest findings from the meteorologists of the National Hurricane Center are:

Unorganized cloudiness and chill from Hispaniola to the east to
the Leeward Islands and adjacent waters are associated with a
tropical wave that troughs with an upper level , It is estimated that this activity
will spread westward to west-northwest, increasing precipitation
in parts of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and Florida by early next week. Strong upper winds will prevent development of this system during the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could become less hostile if the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Only part of the story, the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are favorable for storm development, but other meteorological factors must be taken into account in the coming days.

In the future, some tropical experts have pointed out the possibility of more tropical activity in the next 1 to 2 weeks based on model projections. However, the National Hurricane Center tweeted this wise warning :

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook offers 48 hours and 5 days of opportunity for tropical cyclone formation. Long-term model predictions of tropical cyclone formation beyond 5 days are often unreliable and can show large variability between models and from one model cycle to the next.

Climatologically, the 6th named storm in the Atlantic Ocean is around 8 September. I will write this on August 31st. If the mentioned Cape Verde system gets a name, it will be the sixth storm of the season (Frances). The lesson is that although a "below normal" season was projected, we are currently ahead of the climatological average.

The naming of storms is typically expected during the Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA


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