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Votes on Kavanaugh can hurt or help these senators in the Midwest in close races



There is evidence that support for Kavanaugh could hurt several incumbent Democrats in swing states that are critical of the hopes of the Midwestern Senate Democrats. Others, less threatened with extinction, might see a bump from their opposition to him. The region has become an important battleground in 2018 as the Democrats seek to regain momentum where Trump defeated them in 2016.

According to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS, Trump's approval is 42% in the Midwestern states nationwide, where it is 41%. While the Midwest did not support Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court (40% voted in favor, 52% disagree), many Democratic senators are fighting for reelection in the region's deepest red states.

Missouri's Senator, Democrat Claire McCaskill, is one of those in office for re-election. She said the allegations against Kavanaugh were "disturbing" but not the reason to vote against his confirmation.

In a Fox news poll released before the confirmation by Kavanaugh, 42% of likely US Senate voters said McCaskill's vote on Kavanaugh would make no difference in their Senate votes. A quarter said it would make them vote for McCaskill when they turned against Kavanaugh and a little more ̵
1; 29% – said it would make them less likely.

Most people said they had already decided on votes for – 75% of likely McCaskill voters said they were sure to back them in November. McCaskill was tied with Republican Josh Hawley at 43% in the poll.

  US Senator Joe Donnelly at a hearing before the Senate's Banking, Housing and Urban Development Committee on Capitol Hill.
Another Fox survey from the same series of midwestern polls looked at how the vote in Kavanaugh could affect the US Senate race in Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly ran a CNN race as Toss Up wants to survive. It's really split for Donnelly. A third of likely voters said that if he voted against Kavanaugh's affirmation, it would make no difference how they vote in the Senate, 32% said they were less likely to vote for him and 30% said they did would be more likely. Donnelly refused to support the judge and voted with his party.
  U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin on Capitol Hill
In an NBC / Marist poll in Wisconsin, a safer democratic territory that CNN rates as "Likely Democratic," more than 41% of registered voters said Kavanaugh's affirmation was more likely support a congressional candidate who rejected his nomination. In the same poll, Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin had a 14-point leadership in the Senate election campaign.
  Sen. Heidi Heitkamp appears in a press conference on Capitol Hill.
At last, in North Dakota, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is in dangerous territory. She is a Democrat in a CNN-rated seat as a Lean Republican and she was down in the polls. There is evidence that her controversial vote against Kavanaugh may have further hurt her chances. Fox & # 39;'s survey found that 17% of likely voters said their opposition to Kavanaugh would make them more supportive of them, but the double – 34% – said it would make them less likely to support them. Almost half (46%) said their election against Kavanaugh would not affect their decision.

Among those wishing to vote for re-election, 52% said it made no difference whether they voted for support or opposition to Kavanaugh's nomination. Among those intending to vote for Republican Representative Kevin Cramer, their challenger, 54% said their vote against Brett Kavanaugh would make them less likely to vote for them in November.

Trump's approval rating among North Dakota voters in the Fox poll is 64%, significantly higher than the rest of the country and the Midwest.


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