Global emissions The carbon dioxide levels reached the highest levels measured, the researchers said Wednesday, with the recent recognition of the gap between international climate change goals and what countries actually do.
Between 2014 and 2016, emissions remained largely unchanged to hope that the world will turn a corner. These hopes were destroyed. In 2017, global emissions increased by 1.6 percent. The increase in 2018 is expected to be 2.7 percent.
The expected increase, which would bring fossil fuel and industry emissions to a record high of 37.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year, is caused by nearly 5 percent emissions growth in China, according to researchers in China and more than 6 percent in India, growth is growing in many other countries of the world. United States emissions rose by 2.5 percent, while emissions from the European Union fell by just under 1 percent.
When the nations in Poland gathered for climate talks, the message from Wednesday's report was clear: when it comes to getting started. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that fuel climate change, the world is lagging behind.
"We are in trouble. We have big problems with climate change, "UN Secretary-General António Guterres said this week at the opening of the 24th annual UN Climate Change Conference, where countries are struggling with the ambitious goals they need to achieve to reduce their carbon footprint drastically reduce in the coming years
"It's hard to overestimate the urgency of our situation," he added. "Even if we experience devastating effects of the climate on the whole world, we still do not do enough and do not move fast enough to prevent irreversible and catastrophic climatic changes."
Guterres did not specifically comment on Wednesday's results, which were published in a trio of scientific papers by researchers from the Global Carbon Project. However, his words came in a series of gloomy autumn news that warned scientists that the effects of climate change are no longer remote and hypothetical and that the effects of global warming will only increase if there are no aggressive international measures , In October, a high-level, UN-sponsored scientific panel noted that nations have barely a decade to take "unprecedented" action and halve their emissions by 2030 to face the worst effects of climate change prevent. The panel's report found that there is no documented historical precedent for the rapid changes in society's infrastructure that would be needed to keep warming to just 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
The day after Thanksgiving, the trump card The government published a nearly 1,700-page report co-authored by hundreds of scientists. It has been found that climate change is already causing increasing damage to the United States. This was soon followed by another report outlining the growing gap between the commitments made at previous UN conferences and what is needed to divert the planet from its catastrophic path.
Combined with the findings of Wednesday, the eardrum of the scary news has caused considerable damage to the international climate negotiations in Poland, which started this week and is due to run until December 14th.
The negotiators there face the difficult task of solving the gap between the promises they made in Paris in 2015 and the necessary needs to control the dangerous level of warming – a first step towards more aggressive climate action from 2020 onwards. The conference leaders are also trying to set up a process of how countries measure their greenhouse gas emissions and report to the rest of the world in the coming years.
However, while most of the world is committed to fighting climate change, many countries are unable to meet their relatively modest Paris commitments on pace. The Trump government has further reversed environmental legislation, insisting that it end the Paris Agreement in 2020. Brazil, which has struggled to regain control of deforestation, elected a leader in Jair Bolsonaro this autumn who has pledged to reverse the EU's protective measures.
However, China's largest emission history in 2018 seems to be the world's largest issuing country, which has increased its output of planetary warming gases by nearly half a billion tons, the researchers estimate. (The United States is the second largest emitter in the world.)
The country's sudden, significant increase in carbon emissions could be linked to a further slowdown in the economy, environmental analysts said.
"Under the pressure of the current economic situation After the downturn, some local governments may have eased the monitoring of air pollution and CO2 emissions," said Yang Fuqiang, an energy adviser to the US environmental group Natural Resources Defense Council.
China's top planning agency said Wednesday that three areas – Liaoning in northeastern Rust Belt and the large coal-producing regions of Ningxia and Xinjiang in the northwest – last year, they were unable to curb energy consumption growth and increase efficiency.
But Yang said these areas are not representative of the whole country, and that China in general was on the right track. "In terms of limiting pollution and reducing emissions, there is still a long way to go, but We expect more ambition in the plans and actions of the central government n be expected, "he said.
Such changes – in all countries with great charisma – must do this happen quickly.
Scientists have said that if the world wants to achieve the most stringent and safest climate protection target, annual carbon dioxide emissions will have to fall by half by 2030. That would either keep the warming of the earth below 1.5 degrees Celsius – if it is already at 1 degree – or just "exceed" this temperature.
But emissions are far too high to limit warming to such an extent. And instead of falling dramatically, they are still rising.
Wednesday's research reveals the intimidating math behind the fundamental change that scientists consider necessary. While some countries continue to increase their emissions and others shrink, there are still more additions than subtractions.
"In rich countries, there are no declines surpassing growth in other parts of the world," said Rob Jackson, a researcher at Stanford University who has contributed to research as part of the Global Carbon Project.
The problem of emission reduction is that it leads to difficult decisions in the real world. A growing global economy inevitably leads to increased energy needs. And in different countries, emissions increase for different reasons – or are they not downsized.
"India supplies hundreds of millions of people who do not have power yet with electricity and energy," Jackson said, "which is very different from China, where coal consumption is partially replenished as economic growth slows These are environmentally friendly coal-based projects that have been put on ice. "
Researchers note that the progressive increase in global emissions is occurring even as renewable energy sources are growing, and that's just how much they still have as energy sources
"Solar energy and wind are good, they are running quite well," said Glen Peters, director of the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, the authors of the Global Carbon Project. "But in China and India, solar and wind power meet you might say that if you had neither solar nor wind power, emissions could be higher, but sunlight and wind but not big enough to replace fossil fuels. "
The numbers provided by the researchers are estimates based on available data from the energy and cement industries in the first nine months of the year and forecasts based on economic trends and the carbon levels of different countries emit to consume energy. The estimated growth could change a bit, Jackson said. Maybe the final number would be between 1.8 and 3.7 percent. However, there is no doubt that 2018 has reached a new record high for global emissions.
In the United States, emissions are projected to have increased by 2.5 percent in 2018, partly due to a very warm summer, leading to air circulation conditioning and a very cold winter in the Northeast, but also due to continued Use of oil, driven by low gas prices and larger cars. Emissions in the US declined as coal-fired power plants were replaced by natural gas and renewable energy, but this moment was at least temporary this year. In Europe, cars were also a major driver of slower than expected emission reductions.
In China, coal accounts for about 60 percent of China's total energy consumption, but the government hopes to cut it by 10 percent in 2050.
China's carbon intensity or carbon dioxide emissions per capita decreased thanks to increased green energy investment Unit by 46 percent compared to 2005, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported earlier this week. It had expected that by 2020 the targeted reduction of 40 to 45 percent should be achieved.
"These goals have created a very solid foundation for achieving the goal of halting carbon dioxide emissions growth by 2030. This has been achieved earlier than planned," said Xie Zhenhua, China's Special Envoy for Climate Change, to the State News Agency Xinhua ahead of the meeting in Poland.
China will stand firm and active in tackling climate change and the implementation of climate change Paris Agreement, Xie said.
However, officials and analysts point out that the United States their contribution "We would also be delighted if the United States took its responsibility to return to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change," said Yang from the NRDC.
Despite overwhelming challenges, Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change a changes I still hope for the talks in Poland.
"I'm an optimist for human reasons," Espinosa said in an interview. She suspects that the flood of catastrophic climate news has set a turning point at which societies are beginning to demand aggressive action from their leaders to ward off the catastrophic effects of climate change.
"I think we've reached the limit," she said, "When we hit the border, I think we need to come up with something more creative, ambitious, powerful and brave."
Lyric Li added this story from Beijing.