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Home / Sports / Week 8 Tips NFL Tips: Why This Week's Patriots Line Is So Rare, Teaser of the Week, and More

Week 8 Tips NFL Tips: Why This Week's Patriots Line Is So Rare, Teaser of the Week, and More

In Week 3, I broke the success rate of teams with 16 or more favorites and concluded that the Bills had a great chance of staying within the number, but a clear win was too much a challenge against the Vikings. You know how that ended.

This week we'll look at another crooked line that includes the NFL's favorite punching bag. The Patriots are currently 14-point favorites on the road against the bills in what could be a bloodbath Monday night. If the final line is at least Patriots -14, it will be the first time since 2013 that a road team has been favored by these many points in a regular season game. Since 1

982 we have seen this scenario occur 31 times, and the outsider is 17-14 ATS in this range.

However, if you isolate only the last 10 years, the outsider is 6-3 ATS, with all but three of those massive lines came in 2009. Favorites had to cover five strips in a game in one game before the match The 49ers beat Jacksonville's Jaguars, 42-10, as 14.5-point favorites in 2013. Colin Kaepernick was only 10-for-16 in the win as he raced for two touchdowns that Frank Frank matched, though Kendall Hunter's team with 84 yards on nine overtaking maneuvers. It was a different time.

But the scenario that we see this week with the Patriots and Bills is even rarer because it concerns division opponents. The Pro Football Reference database has only 10 instances of a division game ending with the 14-point favored road team, and if it happens here, it will be the first time we've seen it since … the Patriots have 16-point favorites against the Bills in week 11 of 2007. The Patriots rolled in that game by a score of 56-10, but we know that Patriots team was at a very different level than this year's squad.

The massive Street Favorit has covered in each of the four instances in our subgroup since 2000, with two coming out of these 2007 Patriots. Previously, the outsider was 4-2 ATS when he got 14 points or more.

What does that mean for how we bet in Week 8 of 2018? I think the only side to consider is the Bills, as this year's Patriots team won just one with only 14 points and is shaky on the road, even though they did well against the Bears last week fight to two special teams touchdowns. However, I would not put hard-earned US dollars on a team that got quarterbacks from Derek Anderson.

If you have action on Monday evening, could I suggest the Under? The Bill's offensive was a pull break this season and is a mess in the QB position. The Patriots need not win this game by 40, and in cold, possibly wet conditions, Bill Belichick should be able to build a comfortable lead in the first half and only lose time after halftime. We could see something like 26-3 or 27-6 as the last one here.

If you want to know which pages I like this week, you can find this info in the SportsLine link below, where all my rated games appear. The season along with my five SuperContest picks every week and lots of great analytics from a fantastic one expert collection. You can also check here where all of our CBS Sports employees land in every game every week.

Every week in this room, I'll go behind the lines and picks to immerse you a little deeper into what you should know before you lock your games. This includes which lines are moving, which benefits are not good enough in the home field, which injuries you should watch, my top teaser game of the week and much more.

Let's get started.

My Tips

I posted some tips for Week 8 at SportsLine, and there will be much more until Friday night. Sign up now and use the coupon code WHITE for $ 1 in your first month and you'll receive my and all SportsLine Expert Picks all year round, as well as my SuperContest picks every Saturday.

However, with my teaser, you can get a free pick of the week at the end of this article. Enjoy!

Largest linings

Buccaneers at Bengals -4.5
Ravens -2 at Panthers
Colts -3 at Raiders

The Bengals opened as six-point favorites, but they were quickly put down as sharp contestants hammered the bucs, apparently expecting a close result. Three of Cincinnati's four wins are double digits, but they have not looked good in the last two weeks either. The Bucs have lost more than five just once this year.

The Ravens opened as a pick in Carolina against the Panthers, but it seems that Weather expected the roadside crew to return after a shocking loss to the saints featured Justin Tucker's first ever missed extra point. The Panthers are 4-2 and have made a big comeback in Philly but obviously the Sharps are not impressed.

The three-point movement at Colts-Raiders is easy to understand as the Raiders Amari Cooper act and signal that they will kick in 2018. Still, it's a little shocking to see a 2-5 team make favorites.

As far as previews are concerned, the Cardinals were 2.5-point favorites against the 49ers at home in week 7 but now dogs can be found at home. If you think the Arizona Offensive Coordinator Switch will make a difference, you must love the value of this line. And the Patriots were only 10-point favorites in Buffalo before Vegas had a chance to see how bad the Bills offensive play with Derek Anderson is at the top.

Which teams should you have back in week 8 of the NFL season? ? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams win more than 50 percent of the simulations, all from the model that has surpassed 98 percent of the experts surveyed by NFLPickWatch.com over the past two seasons.

The DVOA Edge

Dolphins +7.5 at Texans
Jaguars +3 against Eagles
Broncos +10 at Chiefs
Seahawks +3 at Lions
[19659002] One of the things I'm looking for when building matchups is that the Football Outsiders DVOA does not match the betting line. I do not have a specific formula, but my standard is basically four points from DVOA for every point on the neutral field line, though, once the line gets big enough, I think it's more like five points from DVOA. Instead of using the regular DVOA numbers, for this exercise I use DAVE first (which includes preseason projections) and then weighted DVOA to get a better sense of the value of each team at the time of the season, where I need to know

The dolphins actually have a better rating than the Texans, but part of them can refer to their performance with Ryan Tannehill. With the backup QB in the lineup and on the road with a short week to prepare, I'm not sure I'm going to the counter to get my money on the dolphins.

The Jaguars and Eagles are neck in neck in DVOA, though the Eagles are obviously three points better on a neutral field. DVOA also believes that the Broncos Chiefs line should be about three points lower. And while the line in the Seahawks-Lions game implies that the teams are dead, the DVOA draws a much rosier image for the road crew, with about 22 points difference in the DVOA between the two. That would mean a neutral field line of Seahawks -5.5, which would be Seahawks -2.5 in Detroit.

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Fading public

Eagles -3 vs. Jaguars
Bears -7 vs. Jets
Redskins -1 at Giants
Colts -3 at Raiders
49ers PK at Cardinals

When 80 percent of the action or more is on one side of a line, you want to think about taking over the other side, an exercise commonly known as Fading the Public. If the consensus believes it has found a game, the warning sign should flash for you. (See BetOnline's all-bet data on Vegas Insider, and you can find the latest numbers here.)

The Eagles get 84 percent of tickets from Wednesday night, another indicator that the Jaguars might match the better game in it. It's not hard to see why the public is lining up to block out a Jaguar offensive that has broken down in the last few weeks and even used quarterback Blake Bortles during their loss to the Texans. Bortles, however, was announced in this as a starter.

The public does not buy the jets that take to the streets and hang with the Bears, a team that gets 86 percent of the tickets in this matchup. I can give you no reason to play the jets, except for the concept of fading the public.

The Redskins are your figurehead for the disappearance of the public, seeing incredible 95 percent of tickets as of Wednesday night. The Giants made two trades earlier this week as they blow up their rosters and begin a long-awaited rebuilding, and it's clear the public thinks they will be out of the field this week. The same concept follows the Raiders, as 92 percent of the tickets have come in the Colts.

The 49ers are 83 percent of the tickets against the Cardinals, and this could be a dangerous game for the public, considering that the 49ers are A 1-6 team on the road receives massive public support. We should also expect offensive play calls to change as Byron Leftwich takes the lead in the offensive coordinator.

The Packers are not quite at the 80 percent mark at the time of writing, but enough of them at +9.5 against the Rams that they could also raise a "Fade the Public" game.

Greatest Line Traits I Would Do

Browns at Steelers -8 (PIT -5.5)
Redskins -1 at Giants (WAS -2.5)
Ravens -2 at Panthers (PK)
Colts -3 at Raiders (PK)
49ers -1 at Cardinals (ARI -3)
Saints at Vikings PK (MIN-3)

When my performance and weighted home field Advantage numbers say that a line is more than a point away, you would be 26-18-1 by blindly playing the side on which it is worth. Of course, there are more that come into play as Friday's injury reports, weather and other factors make me decide I'm comfortable playing one of those value pages, but it's a good start. These are the lines that I have removed at least two points this week.

I'm not as high at the Steelers or as low at the Browns, as the conventional wisdom would say, and I only have a three-point gap between the teams on a neutral field. With the Steelers not the full three for the home field, this line makes Steelers -5.5 for me. I appear on the Browns every week, but it works because they have 5-2 ATS this season.

The Redskins should be a bigger favorite, considering what we've seen from the Giants, but that's a line I'm not looking to jump in spite of how much I think it's over. Something tells me that the Giants can win this week for some reason.

My numbers say that the Ravens-Panthers and Colts-Raiders should pick games, but Vegas definitely has a clear position in the straight team. Despite the bad line value, I still like the Ravens, but there's no way I can connect three points to anyone on the street with the Colts.

The 49ers Cardinals game is the biggest head-scratcher. My numbers have the Cardinals as the better team, as I trust their defense more than any unit in this game and I think the change in the offensive coordinator will make a noticeable difference. My ratings have this as Cardinals -3.5, but I think it's a more than sensible thing to hang three in this match.

I would also hang the three in Saints Vikings because although I have the Saints better as a point A neutral field, the Vikings have one of the best home league advantage and get four points in my ratings when they play at home , This fits in with a line of Vikings -3 that makes more sense to me than seeing them.

Teaser of the Week

Bears -1 vs. Jets
Buccaneers + 10.5 in Bengals

I expect the Bears to race against a Jets team at Receiver and Cornerback collided with a quarterback who did not look so hot last cold last week. This will also be the first street game of the jets in October of this year, thanks to three home games. I do not envy them for going to Chicago in this match.

The Bengals also have a lot of injuries to complain about, with 10 players missing on Wednesday. They may have won 11-point wins in a row to open the year, but one was a home team in a short week and the other needed a last-minute scoop-and-score to double-digit win. The Buccaneers offensive should be able to keep up here.

Other possible teaser games are: Steelers -2, though I would not play them, laying more than one touchdown; Chiefs -4, although I usually go through three in teaser; Vikings +6, since I can not see how they are rolled at home.

The teaser of the week is 4-3 after the dolphins have failed me; the obvious game should have been to get the Chiefs to make a selection against the Bengals.

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