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What could stop a democratic wave? Economy, trust, independence



These developments benefit the people targeted by the Democrats: women in upscale, right-center, white suburbs where Hillary Clinton has won; Trump voters in rural and industrial areas with strong democratic roots; and minorities in racially diverse metropolitan areas.

While the president stands tall above this election, both opponents and supporters are taking off, local issues such as school funding or mining are in the forefront of some races. In others, the mix of republican personality and political positions has gained independence and moderates.

In recent months, the New York Times has interviewed dozens of voters in the districts of the battlefield and spoke at length to three of them about the nuances of the races in their territories, how politics affected their lives and their views and concerns about the Midterms. These voters have a tradition in their districts of crossing party lines ̵

1; one in Pennsylvania, one in Minnesota and one in California – and discussed what ultimately would make them elect Democrats or Republicans.

Donnelly in Bucks County, for example, noted Mr. Fitzgerald's independent line. "I had personal interactions in which I told him he was dead wrong," she said, "and he was very respectful."

His reputation as a moderate and constituent record has helped Mr. Fitzpatrick make recommendations from the State Education Association, the local police and fire department, and the state's AFL-CIO. "If you're with us, we're here for you," said Rick Bloomingdale, the organization's president.

The survey results were mixed. A recent New York Times / Siena College poll showed Scott Wallace, the Democratic challenger, at the top. A recent survey by the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute found Mr. Fitzpatrick 4 points lower than voters.

"If you look at the political environment in this district, you would expect the Democrat to be in the lead," said Patrick Murray, director of the institute. "But Fitzpatrick has been able to overcome this with a solid reputation among his constituents."


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