"We have reached an economic turn of historic proportions" President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday shortly after after the Bureau of Economic Analysis had published a report in which it was estimated that the economy grew 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2018, the fastest rate since 2014. On Twitter, Vice President Mike Pence drove a victory round.
The numbers are certainly positive. "If economic growth continues at this rate, the US economy will double more than 10 years faster than under President Bush or President Obama," Trump said. The keyword, however, is "if". During the campaign, Trump did not promise a growth rate of 4 percent per annum per quarter. A 4.1 percent growth rate is strong but not the strongest quarter of the last decade. Obama's presidency saw four quarters of stronger GDP growth.
And as many analysts have pointed out, a quarter of strong growth is not necessarily indicative of the future , "A single three-month period of strong growth is not exactly unparalleled," Washington Post wrote the economic columnist Catherine Rampell on Thursday. "It's also not a sign that the economy is making gangsters or has been fundamentally changed. Crucial is whether this strong growth is sustainable."
On Friday, Trump insisted that GDP Growth was "very, very sustainable". That's not This is a one-time attempt, "he said, arguing that the economy would continue to grow due to Republican tax cuts, its trade war and the government's deregulation agenda. Rampell believes that economic growth will be temporary It could be because the companies "freaked out about Trump's trade war … the end of the world" by stockpiling raw materials, intermediates, and finished goods before the tariffs increased costs over all these things, "she wrote. "In other words, perhaps a little counterintuitive, just what makes Trump believe his trade war is working – unusually strong growth in the last quarter – could be proof that he is backfiring."
It is therefore impossible to say whether Trump achieved the economic growth he claimed. He seemed to confirm that on Friday as well. "I will not be too strong in my predictions," he said, "because then, if it is not quite so good, you will not let me forget it."