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Home / World / What if Trump wins? – POLITICO Magazine

What if Trump wins? – POLITICO Magazine



Darren Samuelsohn is a senior White House reporter for POLITICO.

President Donald Trump has a lot to do in 2020. If he loses, he will not quietly continue his carefree Snowbird lifestyle, despite having millions of new Twitter followers. He is being prosecuted by major lawsuits when he is fending off criminal investigations in several jurisdictions.

But what if he wins?

Continuation of the story

The election is more than a year away, his possible impeachment is over The widening Ukraine scandal is far from resolved, and numerous polls show that the president is almost all of his likely democratic opponents in the country Tow has. But impatient politicians are already playing out a scenario that is solidifying into conventional wisdom: Trump is accused by the House of Representatives, acquitted by the Senate and re-elected on 3 November.

The prospect of another four years has already sparked feverish fantasies of Democrats and Never-Trump Republicans. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi predicted, "The re-election of Donald Trump would cause irreparable damage to the United States." of which the world has never seen.

Trump himself does not say much about how a second semester would really look like. Legislative agendas in scripts are not what he does. Still, if his first term taught us something, Trump would be anything but a lame duck. In fact, the civil war predicted by the president could be well visible in the hostile masses who mutinied each other in the mall in January. After this? What does an injured but unfair Trump do with his political capital? What does an angry democratic opposition express that it has not yet done?

There is only one way to answer these questions: the POLITICO Time Machine.

For the uninitiated, we used it once in April 2016, when Trump was not even the Republican nominee and when most people insisted he still had no chance to win the White House. But our group of armchair travelers already foresaw the impending possibility that the unorthodox newbie could be charged if he ever took office. Our predictors were not so far off, as the Democrats began investigating Trump halfway through his term when they took over the majority of the House of Representatives.

Okay, sure, we were a bit off the mark when we predicted that Trump would reopen Alcatraz, and World War II internment camps are supposed to house alleged Islamic extremists. And at the beginning of 2016, nobody saw Russia, let alone Ukraine, as the centerpiece of the impeachment investigation. But, boy, has our brains been careful that Trump bypasses Congress to pay his border wall? a full-blown civil war in the intelligence community; and the president's approval collapses faster than a glacier in Greenland.

To further refine the conventional wisdom, we have reorganized the Time Machine Travelers and expanded the list – 25 people who know Trump world and GOP as well as Democratic politics -. and they asked: What does Washington and the nation plan for when Trump opposes the odds of holding on to the White House?

"We will have entered an era of authoritarianism," warned John Dean, the former lawyer of Richard Nixon's White House, whose public testimony over Watergate led to the resignation of the president.

That's just left-wing hysteria, said Newt Gingrich, the house's former spokesman and Trump's outspoken ally. I do not think Trump is encouraged, I think Trump will be Trump, I think Trump is encouraged every morning, he says, "I'm a billionaire. I have the White House, Air Force One and Marine One. And I am Commander-in-Chief. What is part two? & # 39; All those guys who shot me for three years and I'm still in the building and they are not. & # 39; "

But even some Trump supporters see the chance that Trump will test the president's borders power with poor results.

Former George W. Bush White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, a Republican who once criticized the president, but now largely supported him, said a reelected Trump has the potential to get things going too far. "I think it would be very similar to the first term, with the risky exception that he survived the impeachment trial and was chosen by the people he may think is the guardrails further off the road I hope he has recognized that the guardrails are there for a good cause and if he drives too fast [he’ll] they will crash through. "

At a press conference in the Rose Garden in early 1999, after the President Bill Clinton responded to a question whether he could "forgive and forget" by saying, "I believe that anyone who asks for forgiveness must be ready to give it." Bob Woodward's report in According to his book Shadow a reporter called to the president as he walked away and asked if he would vindict the republicans who had just accused him Not around.

Trump "can not go on," Fleischer predicted. "He runs back to the microphone."

So, what would Trump say? We let the time machine speak.

***

It is January 2021 . The elections have plunged the nation into psychological chaos, and a sulfur-rich cloud of elections interfered with by foreign hackers depends on the controversial results. Trump's Ukraine scandal has finally spared him, but he has hurt Joe Biden enough to give Elizabeth Warren the nomination. The result, however, returned to the electoral college, but even closer than in 2016. Warren, like Hillary Clinton four years ago, won the referendum by a wide margin. But this mixed verdict has done nothing but sharpen the battle lines of a civil war that has become more than just a metaphor.

The weeks following Election Day were ugly. Protests in New York, Washington, San Francisco and a dozen other cities became violent. The result was a jumble of angry Democrats with pink hats, MAGA supporters, left antifascist and right-wing Proud Boys. People were killed. The president has condemned the discord to urban plague. And then he imposed curfews and ordered the National Guard to patrol the streets over the protests of governors and mayors.

On January 20, Trump takes the oath of office and vows for the second time in the shadow of the Capitol that he would do so "Preserve, protect and defend the United States Constitution as best it can." The scene is unlike anything before in the history of the country. Whatever was a high-security event, it takes on a militaristic tone: Trump orders US troops into the streets of Washington to prevent further unrest. His family surrounds him, along with a loyal base of congressional republicans who, with the exception of a few defectors in the first four years, voted to keep him in office and defeat the impeachment. Democrats, still struck by Trump's obvious constitutional violations, boycotted the event en masse, the first time in modern history that this happened. Their seats are awarded in a lottery open to Trump supporters.

Also something else is remarkable. Four living ex-presidents Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter join George W. Bush in protesting the protocol. They skip Trump's opening ceremony and accept Carter's invitation to distribute meals in a homeless shelter in Washington, DC.

After the opening parade, which includes tanks for the first time in half a century, the president enters the White House, picks up a handwritten faerie list of people working for him, and has Jared Kushner shoot them all. On the list of victims are Minister of Trade Wilbur Ross, Minister of Education Betsy DeVos and Minister for Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson. Mike Pompeo and Mark Esper resigned before the election after Trump blamed the Ukraine chaos. Steve Mnuchin is the only original cabinet secretary still in Trump's good hands.

A new group of loyalists will be hired, including former representatives Mark Meadows, Jim Jordan and Doug Collins, as well as Lindsey Graham, who will retire from the Senate's new defense minister. Brad Parscale moves from Campaign Manager to White House Chief of Staff – but only after Trump leaves Mick Mulvaney's previous job open for six months. Trump promises his longtime advisor Stephen Miller the appointment as deputy head of the Department of Homeland Security at the end of the second term, if the confirmation by the Senate for a lame duck administration does not matter. And the president is also hijacking his re-election campaign for new employees because he believes they would be more loyal than the Frankenstein crew of the Republican National Committee, which he hastily assembled in 2017.

"You are not working to re-elect a man you hate to get into the White House," notes Michael Caputo, a longtime Trump consultant who has agreed to join us in our time-travel experiment, the 2020- Campaign is a true reward for faithful, Trump-believing worker bees.

Next comes the point calculation. "Trump is completely unencumbered and 100 percent political all the time. Payback is Hell, "predicted one of the Republicans near the White House, who was anonymous for his current job.

As Washington freezes to the end of winter, Trump temporarily relocates his administration to Mar-a-Lago. Playing golf six days a week with famous admirers Rush Limbaugh, Kid Rock and Tiger Woods however, finds time between rounds to throw Twitter shells at anyone who crossed him in his first four years in office. Republicans are not spared, as Trump targets half of the senators who voted against him in the impeachment trial. He is following Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to remove Ben Sasse from the Banking, Justice and Intelligence Committees. For Richard Burr and Lisa Murkowski in 2022 he selects the main challenger of the GOP. And he thinks he does not offer Susan Collins or any of the other Mormon Senator from Utah any opportunity to repay.

"Romney is fortunate that he will apply for re-election in 2024," said Sam Nunberg, another former Adjutant of Trump 2016, who drives a shotgun in our time machine and sees a four-year election cycle into the future far enough away to hold the GOP presidential candidate in 2012 from Trump's ultimate amortization.

Trump continues to try to put his government into action when the summer arrives in 2021. It begins with negative growth for the second consecutive quarter in the months following the official entry of the long-awaited April recession, He tweets ten times a day, said Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, giving one of his remaining initial investments, national economic adviser Larry Kudlow, another opportunity to tax relief for the US economy To propose a middle class in the hope of spinning the wheel.

Trump also relies harder on his Ministry of Justice He is next ordering to remove Robert F. Kennedy's name from Washington headquarters and replace it with the name of Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor and personal advocate for the president whom Trump has appointed as director of his revised and solemn Voice of America. Then Trump threatens to dismiss Attorney General William Barr and any US attorney in the country if Thanksgiving does not file charges against the Obama administration's raids that were involved in the 2016 original investigation into Russia.

Trump cancels the annual turkey pardon event and replaces it with a ceremony to give Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn and Roger Stone the Presidential Medal of Freedom Three former election aides in 2016 were convicted of crimes linked to Russia's investigation of Special Representative Robert Müller, but Trump believes he has room for maneuver in the second term and decides to cleanse their records.

Confused Given the election results of 2020, Democrats can not figure out how to respond to any new example of Trump defying Congress: "The Fights, The Blame, All That Whoo!" Democratic activist James Carville tells of his party's struggle to find himself after the defeat in 2020. Jim Manley, a longtime Adviser to Harry Reid, who was with us in 2016, the last time we looked to the future, sees a "circular" from shooting squads that took place in his party, without a national-democratic leader being able to contain the Internecine warfare ,

Pelosi was a patron in the house at the moment when TV stations declared Trump the winner in November. The president had mocked her during the campaign against him in 2020 for impeachment. And while her party is still clinging to a narrow majority of the House of Representatives, the San Francisco congressman decides to end it, handing over the speaker's hammer to Hakeem Jeffries, a 50-year-old lawmaker from a neighborhood in Brooklyn-Queens, who has only one A stone's throw away is the children's home of the president.

Democrats still have summons powers, but have been neutralized by repeated attempts to get something out of the president. In the summer ahead of the presidential election in 2020, the conservative majority of the Supreme Court of Trump made it virtually impregnable with a 5-4 decision to lift the groundbreaking Watergate ruling against Richard Nixon and instead take a wide range of executive powers over to the president.

Legislators are turning from Trump's alleged abuse of power and foreigners' interference in US elections to something that does not arouse Trump's anger so much: neglecting the federal authorities throughout his administration. While the constitution does not contain a double endorsement clause, the Democrats are debating whether to stop their fire, even if they are considering another attempt to remove him from office in the second year of Democrats, who are now the largest block of votes in the US Hold home conference. But Jeffries interrupts the conversation until the summer of 2021, saying that the party will not consider resigning until after 2022 – and only when there is a blue wave that causes dramatic changes in the Senate. He argues that there is no reason to go to war again against a president who will not stop talking about his new mandate or against republicans who would not condemn the president during his first term, even after being given a tape with the Heimlich was hiding on an internal White House trump server offering to sell Alaska to Vladimir Putin to gain the help of Russian hackers for a second term.

"He can now do anything he pleases, even though it is clearly a criminal offense because they will not prosecute him twice in a row," complains Connecticut member of parliament Chris Shays, one of four republicans who opposed him in 1998 all four impeachments against Bill Clinton voted.

With impeachment, Trump attempts to conclude deals with a divided Congress, but he spends his political capital much faster than his adjutants want He finally gets a profit for a replacement for the North American trade deal he broke up in his first term, but that's it, House Democrats are shying away from an infrastructure package, and there are not nearly the 60 Senate votes for overhauling national laws The ensuing quarrels and allegations among legislators are destroying the chances for even larger elevators, and the reform of eligibility rules will lapse during the debate on Trump's first budget in his second term of office, which will put an end to a major overhaul of immigration after m Exotic troops have inadvertently opened fire on their American counterparts outside of El Paso. The resulting tensions triggered by Trump and the conservative media warnings of a caravan of thousands of migrants never appearing on the border.

As we move further into Trump's second term, we find that he does not lose every battle in the Capitol. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who was re-elected for the seventh time in 2020, continues to contribute to reshaping federal courts. The Kentucky Republican clears the calendar to hold polls confirming more than 100 new judges with lifelong appointments to the District and Appeals Tribunals, and Conservatives enjoy the prospect of decades of friendly decisions on abortion, religion and the environment and labor policy.

At the Supreme Court, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito have two judges in their mid-70s, at the time of Trump's second inauguration, they should prefer after 2025 to retire as being replaced by a Democratic president. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton's two remaining judges, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer, are maximizing their cardiovascular workouts and saying goodbye to strict Mediterranean diets.

Trump does not really change his unpredictable, isolationist foreign instincts. He withdraws all US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, despite reservations even among Republicans. In Syria, IS has proclaimed a second caliphate of modern times. He repeatedly threatens to pull the US out of NATO and even orders the paperwork to be worked out, but withdraws as Republicans and Democrats unite to put legislative hurdles in his path. He raps customs duties on China for four years, but never signs a trade agreement with Beijing. At the end of his second term, the US and China almost had skirmishes in the increasingly militarized South China Sea. Jared Kushner never publishes the second half of his Middle East peace plan. The Iranian nuclear deal is collapsing, although Tehran is not restarting its nuclear program immediately as it tries to rebuild its economy. Fortunately, for Iranians, China and Russia are increasingly willing to ignore US sanctions and give them a financial lifeline. There is also no breakthrough in nuclear talks with North Korea, even though Kim Jong Un is in the US for the first time, playing a Chicago Bulls game with Trump and Dennis Rodman at the United Center.

Trump also spends his time thinking about his legacy and who he wants to replace in the White House. After giving private clues for months, on July 4, 2022, he finally sends a tweet that he does not support the ambitions of Mike Pence as president. "Great guy, TREMENDOUS Veep, but it's time for a nice NEW BLOOD," he writes. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul retire until Labor Day, and Ivanka Trump has to retire 17 months before attending a caucus or primary agreement.

Meanwhile, Trump takes direct control over the planning of his presidential library, which, unlike tradition, will not contain current presidential papers, as none have survived. He is vigorously upgrading the General Services Administration to write down the lease for his DC hotel and informs Congress that he will not agree to a months-long government shutdown unless this is changed by a centuries-old law limiting height of buildings in the Capitol. When the stalemate is over, construction of a new 75-storey building will begin immediately, which, when completed, will overlook the Washington Monument and the rest of the city.

***

Some of our time travel colleagues are not entirely sure whether Trump will be distinguishable from Trump's second term of office from the first term. "He is now a Category 5 tornado, "Ty Cobb, former White House lawyer of Trump, persuaded the President's reaction to Robert Müller's investigation." It's not like he's breaking the point. "[19659003] Trump himself has confirmed that a state of eternal scandal has reset all counters. "It's almost a part of me In the day, "the president told reporters earlier this month, talking about all his interactions with lawyers.

The question is whether his opponents will finally accept his existence and find ways to adapt to his chaotic style of government.

"That was a war every day since his victory. I assume that this is not sustainable if elected [again]. At this point, it's just too difficult to survive, "says Gingrich. In fact, he can imagine a bloc of around 50 House Democrats who will eventually work with a second trump on issues such as infrastructure or work with him to promote research into sickle cell anemia in healthcare.

"Once you've made it," We hate Trump! " And "Impeach Trump!" Singing, which I believe will disappear, if he wins the re-election because it is emotionally unsustainable, there is a real chance to put together a series of bipartisan majorities. "said Gingrich, who now lives in Rome with his wife Callista, the US ambassador to the Vatican.

That was after all the case with Clinton, who remained busy in his last two years after his Senate trial, and more signed more than one Dozens of grand laws, including a comprehensive deregulation plan for banks later blamed for triggering the subprime mortgage financial crisis.

Outlook. "It was a different time, different people, different media, quite open." [19659003] While our time machine journeys did not provide for any further impeachments in Trump's future that would go beyond what will come in his first term today, no one who looks at the current bouts can help me, but acknowledge the ever-present possibility that he will return through the Doug Holtz-Eakin, who served as the top adviser for John McCain's presidential campaign in 2008, said he saw "little head start "for Democrats to continue to try to sue for a second term of Trump.

But he would not rule it, either. "The only way I can imagine a second impeachment is a clear, grave violation of national security laws," he said.

There are people who will definitely never get used to Trump and see the President as a Fourth More years are a real threat to the country's constitutional balance.

"As someone who has been in this business in Washington for more than 50 years, I can not tell you how worried I am about this prospect of having the entire structure of the governmental system in place for my life and probably for a century earlier was collapsing in itself, "said Philip Allen Lacovara, a former Watergate prosecutor, who in 1974 unanimously brought the winning arguments Case of the Supreme Court, which led to Nixon's resignation.

"The very fact that people in the executive believe they can simply put a thumb in the door of Congress when asked for information, day after day, not in the face of particularly controversial or sensitive individual requests really the fundamental nature of the government, "added Lacovara. "And the typical voter, who takes care of other things, is simply unaware of it. And if Trump has another four years to codify, institutionalize and anchor this position, it will be very difficult for Congress to re-establish effective control and oversight. I think that's the real risk. "

Trump's critics also fear that the president's unconventional policies, given four more years in office, could have further long-term effects on society. "The young people will think politics is like that," Shays said. "So many of the things our Founding Fathers believe will just go out the window."

For Trump supporters, including those who came along on our time travel, the talk of the end of democracy sounds ridiculous. "In 2012, we said the same thing." Es steht einfach so viel auf dem Spiel ", sagte Nunberg über die Befürchtungen im Zusammenhang mit einer zweiten Amtszeit von Obama. "Uns ging es gut."

Trumps Befürworter behaupten, dass Amerika viel langlebiger ist, als die Kritiker des Präsidenten zugeben – auch wenn er zwei Amtszeiten gewinnt. "Es macht mich verrückt", sagte Fleischer, "wenn die Leute denken, Donald Trumps Tweets sind irgendwie stärker als James Madisons Handschrift."


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