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What Michael Bloomberg means for the democratic field 2020

First, he would like to become president – and has flirted with running several times over the past ten years.

Second, he is not someone who wastes money or time on fancy flights.

Former Vice President Joe Biden's candidacy is not very good these days. Yes, Biden is still a leader in national polls. But national polls play a lesser role as we get closer to actual votes in states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.

And in polls in both states, Biden has fallen behind Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and runs the risk of falling behind Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana.

  Joe Biden sharpens his attacks on Elizabeth Warren

That's bad news if you're like Biden the most famous contestant in the competition. Ask yourself this: If voters in Iowa or New Hampshire are not yet in favor of Biden – after eight years as Vice President of Barack Obama and over 30 years in the Senate – why are you suddenly choosing him in the 3-ish months between now? and the Iowa Caucuses?

Biden's problems are compounded by his inability to remain financially competitive with Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg. The trio ended September with bank deposits of more than $ 20 million (Sanders had $ 33 million), while Biden had less than $ 9 million on the bank. This kind of liquidity deficit means that Biden simply can not reach his rivals on television (and organizationally) if the race goes beyond the first four states. (A super-PAC supporting Biden has emerged to remedy this deficit.)

With all signs of a slowdown, Biden is the obvious candidate who has positioned himself on the same pragmatic track as the former Vice President , And there are signs – especially in Iowa – that Buttigieg is going up.

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However, there are also doubts as to whether the Democratic Party's Establishment Wing is going to One-year-old whose biggest job to date was to become mayor of his hometown. These doubts focus on the idea that Buttigieg simply can not beat Warren for the nomination, leaves the party with its most liberal candidate in decades, and risks the very real possibility of a second term for President Donald Trump.

Enter Bloomberg! An establishment that has a long history of centrist politics – and happens to be a billionaire billionaire!

There is no question that Bloomberg is ready to enter – or at least prepare for – that race – being rooted first and foremost in Biden's perceived struggles. A strong Biden would make a Bloomberg run as good as impossible, as the same types of establishment whispering undoubtedly in Bloomberg's ear once whispered the same sweet things in Biden's ear.

Well, that does not mean that Biden and Bloomberg are interchangeable. You are not. In fact, Biden is at least on paper stronger – especially because he has a proven constituency among the working-class and minority constituencies. It's hard to see how Bloomberg, at least initially, would obviously appeal to one of these groups. (Frankly, I do not know what Bloomberg's "natural" constituency is beyond the people who see "Morning Joe" and drive Amtrak's Acela between New York and DC.)

Bloomberg's candidacy is based on the perceived weakness of Biden's running – and the fear of what an ascending Warren would mean for democratic opportunity next November. Bloomberg believes that this has created a realistic opportunity for him to be a candidate – or at least a very real chance to win.

Of course, chances may be less than they initially appear – or disappear before you can take them. The question for Bloomberg is whether he has enough time to turn that window of time into something much bigger.

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