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What's next with Brexit? Six possible results



LONDON – Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament next month has once again caused consternation and confusion in Britain's already chaotic efforts to leave the European Union, while the question of where Britain will land on October remains open 31., the day on which the country should leave the block.

Mr. Johnson says he would rather leave Britain with a revised Brexit deal, but otherwise it would be out anyway. His opponents have vowed to eliminate any possibility without executing a deal, which in their opinion would be economically catastrophic.

What happens next depends not only on the fight between the Prime Minister and his opponents in Parliament, but also on the economic confusion regarding the flexibility of the hitherto relentless leadership of the European Union, and possibly in relation to a British court ,

If they do not legislate against Brexit without an agreement, lawmakers can resort to the ultimate weapon: a motion of censure that supplants the Lord. Johnson out of office. Currently they do not seem to have the votes to enforce this. But even if this were the case, the problem might not be solved.

The law calls for the formation of a new government within two weeks or after a general election. One option could be a janitorial administration, which would presumably apply for another Brexit delay in order to have time to make a choice. The problem is that opposition leaders can not agree on a prime minister. Jeremy Corbyn, the natural leader of the Labor Party, is on the left and, as a lifelong critic of the European Union, is frowned upon by resolute opponents of Brexit.

Many would prefer a more centrist figure – perhaps the former Conservative Cabinet Minister Kenneth Clarke – as a janitor. Mr. Corbyn would have to agree to step aside, as a censure motion could not succeed without his support.

And even if that were the case, Mr. Johnson has another trick up his sleeve that his followers have telegraphed repeatedly: he may refuse to resign and then schedule a November parliamentary election to hold a Brexit without agreement. Dirty pool, maybe it would leave deep scars in the body politics. However, the relevant law, the Temporary Parliaments Act, does not include anything that requires the prime minister to resign without delay.

Nobody seems to think that this option has any great potential. After all, Parliament voted against a Brexit deal three times, negotiated by Mr. Johnson's predecessor Theresa May, and the European Union stubbornly refuses to resume negotiations. But do not rule it out.

The critical date is the 17.-18. October, where the leaders of the block meet and provide opportunities for last-minute bargaining (which is virtually the only way to get things done there). If a potentially catastrophic no-deal Brexit is still possible, Mr Johnson can send a gun to the heads of European leaders to get a revised deal, and then put the gun to the heads of its legislators to get the deal Measure to adopt. "Either accept my new revised Brexit agreement," he'll say, or we're about to face the dreaded no-deal exit.

Although it is generally accepted that Mr. Johnson uses the threat of a reluctant exit as a bargaining tactic, it is also possible that he actually means what he says. If European politicians make too little concession to his taste, he could go ahead with a no-deal exit, and given the limited parliamentary time available to him, he could succeed. It's the default option, after all. This would allow Mr. Johnson to unite the Brexit supporters in a general election in late 2019 or 2020. However, there is a danger that the predictions of economic chaos after a no-deal Brexit affirmation and a vote prove unrecoverable for him (and, if bad enough, possibly for the Conservative Party in the coming years).

There are already three cases that are being considered against Mr Johnson's decision to suspend the Parliament. Experts believe that this is unlikely to succeed – although Gina Miller, an activist against Brexit, opposed such predictions when she won a case against Ms. May's efforts to bypass parliament when she began the exit talks. She tries it again.

But there may be other ways to go to court. If Mr. Johnson refuses to resign after losing a vote of confidence and tries to postpone a general election beyond the Halloween deadline, a legal challenge would be likely. Then it could be judges, not legislators, who have the deciding vote in Britain's biggest peace decision in decades.


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