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Who can win if Trump pulls the US out of Syria?



While Trump has often praised the achievements against ISIS since assuming office, his recent comments have surprised much of his own government – including defense officials who warned that there was no time to withdraw from Syria.

"We're going to beat ISIS hell and we'll be out of Syria very soon," Trump said during a speech focused on infrastructure, the fans outside Cleveland worry about now. "

Several US defense officials have told CNN that since the President's remarks, the Pentagon has not heard any additional details from the White House – adding that politics has not changed and that they would continue to focus on theirs Fight against ISIS.

One official said the assumption is that the president has some information saying that ISIS will be defeated, and many suspect that Trump has rhetorically taken them to the next step.

Any decision by Trump to withdraw Syria would also violate the current military assessment, which worried some national security officials about the effects of a retreat, another senior government official told CNN.

Who has the most to lose? [1
9659007] The US maintains about 2,000 US troops in Syria and primarily supports the S yrischen democratic forces in the fight against ISIS, a group that is about 50% Arab and 50% Kurdish; However, much of the leadership of the group is Kurdish.

The President's apparent desire to leave Syria as soon as possible will give cause for concern to the US-backed groups in the region, notably the SDF, and could encourage the forces of the Syrian regime, Iran and Turkey US allies in Syria to fight because of concerns against US retaliation.

  Trump says that the US will withdraw from Syria. very soon & # 39;

"Much of what SDF holds in the field is the other forces that can not touch it," said David Adesnik, research director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "Without the support of the US, they will provide their services, and if they are in a weak position, will they make a deal with the regime?"

Recently, the presence of the US forces deterring Russian mercenaries and opponents of the regime from conquering oil fields. Other areas covered by the SDF. Englisch: www.mjfriendship.de/en/index.php?op…39&Itemid=32 controlled, but without the presence of American troops, does not prevent the same troops from attacking again.

There is a similar dynamic in Manbij and At Tanf, where US forces have deterred Turkish and regimental forces from large-scale attacks.

The US is also helping SDF forces to secure the Syrian border with Iraq, with IS still present in the region, but this job will be much harder without US aid.

A US withdrawal could help IS

If the US retreated, de facto spheres of influence would have spared East Syria the same kind of struggle and bloodshed that the civil war brought with it would probably collapse, which would lead to a greater escalation of the conflict.

This chaos could be exploited by the IS, which has already benefited from the actions of Turkey in northern Syria.

Earlier this month, the US warned that IS had begun to reconstitute in some areas of Syria as a Turkish military offensive against a northern town drove the Kurdish US allies against fighting the terrorist group

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"We are very concerned about the effects that have been exerted there on our ISIS efforts and would like to end the hostilities before ISIS Take the opportunity to regroup in eastern Syria, "said Pentagon spokesman US Army Colonel Rob Manning on the Turkish offensive against Afrin.

The State Department went one step further and said that ISIS has already started to rebuild in some places. [196592002] "The fighting in western Syria over the past two months, including in Afrin, has diverted attention from the defeat of the ISIS campaign and has given IS an opportunity to begin recovery in some areas," State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said said last week

US officials warned for weeks that the Turkish military campaign against Kurdish forces in Afrin, launched on January 20, could undermine the fight against ISIS as Kurdish fighters who helped fight the US terrorist group, started to go to help their compatriots there. But the Turks consider the Kurdish allies of the US as terrorists and have strongly repressed US allegations that their involvement is detrimental to the campaign against ISIS.

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"The claim that the operation against Afrin terrorists would endanger the fight against DAESH is completely unfounded," the Turkish Foreign Ministry said last week Arabic name ISIS. "The approach that undermines the fight against terrorism in Syria is the use of one terrorist organization against another."

In a January speech on the policies of the Trump government in Syria, Foreign Minister Rex Tillerson said the US would remain in Syria until the group is routed. "The United States will maintain a military presence in Syria designed to ensure that ISIS can not re-emerge," said Tillerson at Stanford University. "The fight against IS is not over yet."

Russia, Iran and Turkey benefit

The involvement of the US and Russian forces in Syria has made the conflict more difficult and countries a delicate dance in

However, that has not always worked.

Several Russians who were hired as paramilitary subcontractors for fighting pro-Assad forces were killed by US air strikes in February, killing friends and family of those. The US and Russia have "dismantled" communication channels to avoid direct struggles, but the lines do not prevent all conflicts.

A US withdrawal would create a vacuum in the region, much like after leaving Iraq, and most foreign policy experts agree that the gap would likely be filled by Russia.

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Angela Stent, director of the center for Eurasier, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University, told CNN on Friday that "if the US withdraws, it seems to me the Russians would have a free hand" in Syria and the forces "fighting against Assad would be weakened."

I wonder if that was something the President was thinking about when he made this announcement, "Stent said, pointing out that any emigration would increase Russia's status to make him the" main power mediator in this area

In addition, Stent said: A US withdrawal would help Iran, a country whose armed forces are fighting alongside Russians in Syria.

When the US leaves its base in the At-Tanf garrison in southeastern Syria Iran could secure its overland route from Damascus to Tehran, further securing its regional (19659002) Given that Trump has routinely argued in favor of a harsher policy towards Iran, the US would "cut itself off slapping us in the face ", saying that they are withdrawing from Syria, Adesnik said.

Together with Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime could also be excluded from the economic benefit from the conquest of oil fields currently controlled by US-backed allies.

The regime lost around 90% of its oil production when the civil war began, according to Adesnik

CNN's Barbara Starr, Dan Merica and Jim Acosta contributed to the coverage.


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