In support of Guaido, the United States has initiated a series of sanctions to block Maduro's oil sales by the state-controlled company PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.) and to channel funds into Guaido-controlled accounts.
Meanwhile, Venezuela's biggest creditors, China and Russia, are supporting Maduro and keeping an eye on their debt. Cuba has also strengthened the regime by sending thousands of security forces into free oil.
The rampant inflation has made the Venezuelan currency virtually worthless, and oil is the main means of repaying creditors. The problem is that its oil supply is valuable only if it can be extracted and processed ̵
"The total debt is more than six times the annual exports, in fact the ratio is" With the decline in exports, the situation is deteriorating significantly this year. No one expects Venezuela to pay its debts, and the situation is very poor compared to the number of barrels that actually generate cash flow, "said Francisco J. Monaldi, the Latin American Energy Fellow. That's what the Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston tells me , Texas.
Monaldi notes that even the economically depressed South Sudan has a much better debt-to-exports ratio.
Anyone landing in Venezuela's presidency will join huge debts that are going to be hard to repay, even if oil production is rising fast. " Accounting for Venezuelan debts is that there are very different estimates. It's at least $ 130 to $ 140 billion, but it can be up to $ 160 billion, depending on how you put all the arbitration and decisions against Venezuela together "the money that Venezuela owes airlines and others," says Monaldi.
Overall, Venezuela could owe China more than $ 55 billion and Russia at least $ 17 billion, estimates Moises Rendon, a former Venezuelan Bank Analyst, now Associate Director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC
And the Maduro regime has not figured out how to raise foreign exchange by pumping more oil for sale for dollars into the open market, without the creditors, who are still owed more oil, loud.
"The Maduro government no longer controls Citgo, so they will not pay anymore," Monaldi predicts the US-enforced takeover of Citgo's board by Guaido loyalists. "The Russians have a harder hand, they have to convince a (US) judge to have the shares auctioned to get a repayment." Citgo in Houston declined to request comments by email or by phone.
PDVSA itself has more than $ 40 billion in outstanding debt, much of which is currently in default. It is unlikely that a Maduro or Guajido government can or would soon repay the PDVSA loans to companies that support and provide oil drilling services, shipping and marketing to countries like Russia and China believe a new regime will meet their needs would – and this argument is crucial. Frank A. Verrastro, a longtime US oil manager and government official who now serves as Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, says Russia's and China's economic concerns could potentially affect Maduro's support.
"Especially for the Chinese, if you ever want to pay back the money that Venezuela owes you, is not it better to deal with a new government that is solvent than the Maduro government?" says Verrastro.
Joel Guedes, an IPD Latin America Energy Advisor who has worked for PDVSA for more than two decades, tells me a key question is, "Can a Guaido-controlled government offer China and Russia a better repayment plan?"  Venezuelan Opposition Leader and self-proclaimed President Juan Guaido speaking at a meeting in the auditorium of the Chamber of Commerce of Caraca. "src-mini =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190516144329-guaido-celebra-cese-embajada-washington-venezuela- small-169.jpg "src-xsmall =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190516144329-guaido-celebra-cese-embajada-washington-venezuela-medium-plus-169.jpg "src-small = "http://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190516144329-guaido-celebra-cese-embajada-washington-venezuela-large-169.jpg" src-medium = "// cdn.cnn.com /cnnnext/dam/assets/190516144329-guaido-celebra-cese-embajada-washington-venezuela-exlarge-169.jpg "src-large =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190516144329-guaido- celebra -cese-embajada-washington-venezuela-super-169.jpg "src-full16x9 =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190516144329-guaido-celebra-cese-embajada-washington-venezuela-full- 169.jpg "src-mini1x1 =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/190516144329-guaido-celebra-cese-embajada-washington-venezuela-small-11.jpg "data-demand-load =" not-loaded "data-eq-pts =" mini: 0, xsmall: 221, small: 308, medium: 461, large: 781 "/>