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Why did not Dallas Keuchel sign? It's complicated



Where, I think, is it Dallas Keuchel? The key word is "thinking" because teams and the representative of the left, Scott Boras, hold not exactly hourly press conferences on the subject:

Money is still the key at this late stage. In one text, Boras pointed out that there was nothing urgent for Keuchel, since interested teams would be confiscated in their design rooms. But I think the Yankees and other clubs would apologize long enough for Keuchel / Boras to say yes to what was on the table.

So, what was on the table is probably not good enough even after months of free action. Even after Sunday midnight came and went and a signing team no longer had to expect a draft pick compensation by signing Keuchel (or Craig Kimbrel).

. 2 Keuchel and Kimbrel rejected the qualified offer for 1

7.9 million US dollars. To preserve a face, both must receive at least the pro-rata amount of 17.9 million dollars. Let's exclude Kimbrel from this discussion because the executives I've been addressing are still trying to sign a multiyear contract, and a leader called it a priority for the twins. In addition, none of the New York teams to Kimbrel occurs while the Yankees are very keen on Keuchel.

I talked to some officials who stated that Boras had introduced two- or three-year concepts that allowed Keuchel to unsubscribe after this season. But there seems to be a stronger belief that a one-year contract is much more possible and, for example, that all Yankees are ready to do so.

. 3 Why was Keuchel not signed? Because the pro-rata amount of $ 17.9 million is still around $ 11.5 million, and as one official said, "Not many teams have a budget of $ 11 million at this time of year." At this time, most clubs have sold a good idea of ​​participation and suites, etc., and thus an idea of ​​how much can be spent.

The Braves have been strongly associated with Keuchel, but the price point makes them uncomfortable. The Phillies and Twins have a budget to do this if they want, as do the Cardinals. Of course, the Yankees are doing the same, though they are trying to stay away from the highest $ 246 million luxury tax threshold (the Yanks are currently projecting about $ 20 million below). Why did not one of the willing teams do this?

. 4 Because probably all teams are really worried about what they would get. In 2014, Boras clients Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales declined the qualification offer and waited for the draft pick-up compensation to expire in May (the draft was earlier) before signing. Both showed a poor performance and were traded during the season.

Another Boras customer, Greg Holland, rejected the qualification offer after the 2017 campaign and signed St. Louis only at the beginning of last season (for $ 3.4 million as part of the qualification offer)) and then threw himself so violent that the cardinals released it. Another Boras customer, Mike Moustakas, rejected the qualifying offer after the 2017 season and finally signed again with the Royals, however, for only $ 6.5 million. He has done his usual work, but still has to regain what he could have by accepting the qualification offer.

Teams fear that if Keuchel / Kimbrel fails to meet a normal baseball schedule, they will reach their highest level, even if Keuchel throws simulated games every five days.

. 5 So my guess is that teams sign a contract with a guaranteed base and then Keuchel a certain amount per start z. For example, you could earn $ 11.5 million or more by earning the rest of the way. It would not be dissimilar to the minor league pact that Boras closed with the Yankees during the spring training session, in which Gio Gonzalez could receive a $ 3 million base from the majors and then earn up to $ 12 million by throwing regularly (Gonzalez left the Yankees and Boras to play the Yankees) sign with the Brewers).

. 6 Of course, the Keuchel camp wants the highest possible base. Boras could justifiably claim that this would cost an interested team only money, while trading for Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman or Trevor Bauer – if it could be completed at all – would require prospects and money, and possibly not before the 31st July deadline would take place. 19659002] That the Astros, who had concerns about the rotational depth, did not laboriously work to restrain Keuchel raised concerns about his health. But Houston Manager A.J. Hinch recently told me that he thought Keuchel was prepared for it and could help someone this year. In addition, Keuchel led the majors in the past year in fighting and then launched two more games in the playoffs.

Yet, the teams have become more disciplined when it comes to paying for what they project, and not being caught by the name recognition or reputation of past performance.

That's why I think Keuchel – even if the draft-pick compensation is gone – remains unsigned: He still considers himself as a kind of starter and the industry as something less. Who flashes first – and at what dollar?


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