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Home / US / Why Donald Trump could have actually helped to lose the governorship of Louisiana

Why Donald Trump could have actually helped to lose the governorship of Louisiana



"Eddie Rispone made up for a 22-point drawback from President Trump's involvement last month," said the Republican Congressman of Louisiana on the party's candidacy as governor. "It's clear that President Trump's involvement has made a big difference in closing this massive gap."

Not only that this is not true, but also the figures of the democratic government. John Bel Edwards' victory on Saturday night suggests that the opposite could be the case: Trump's repeated presence in the state could actually have led the Democrats to a narrow victory.

First, let's unmask Scalise's claim.

The Congressman came up with the idea that Rispone was 22 points behind Edwards in the jungle on October 1

2. "Primary, where all candidates of all parties are running on a ballot." "If a candidate in primary education receives a simple majority of votes, he is If no candidate receives 50%, the two best voters will move up to the ballot.

This latter scenario occurred in Louisiana this year, with Edwards receiving 47% of the ballot in the primary election and Rispone gaining 27% This roughly matches the 22-point gap Scalise claims, except here: another Republican candidate – MP Ralph Abraham – received 24% of the vote.

When you do all the calculations, you see that all are democratic Candidates (Edwards plus a candidate named Oscar Dantzler) have gained 47.4% overall in the jungle primary sector, while the Republican collective candidates have received 51.8% of the vote elten vote. (The other 0.8% of October voters voted for "other" candidates.)

For Scalise, it is therefore deeply misleading that Trump has brought Rispone back from a 20-point deficit. If Rispone had only won all the votes of people who voted for one of the Republican candidates last month, he would have won. Easy. (Also worth mentioning: The vote on Saturday indicated that the race would be over – and had come to an end since the end of the jungle preliminaries.)

Now for the second point: how well Trump's presence in the state is could have been good provided Edwards his narrow lead of victory.

Trump went to Louisiana twice in the last week of this campaign. His travels were extensively reported by local media. He sent a series of tweets – both before the elections and on Saturday – and urged people to vote for Rispone. "You have to give me a big win, please, OK?" Trump pushed the crowd in Louisiana during his last visit on Thursday.

In short, there was absolutely no way to vote on Saturday and not know a) who supports Trump and b) what kind of signal you would send the president with your vote.

That makes the massive victories for Edwards in urban and suburban areas very, very interesting. Here's Harry Ducks from CNN on just this point:

"Edwards came with 90% of the votes in the urban community of Orleans and 66% of the votes in the partially urban and partially suburban community East Baton Rouge on The Two Trump lost both in 2016. The Democrats Hillary Clinton, however, only won Orleans with 81% and East Baton Rouge with 52%, especially Edwards with 90% in Orleans given that he was the country's most populous state (New Orleans and Baton Rouge) In 2015, 87% of them won the election for the first time, 56% of the vote nationwide.

"The Republican outreach is most evident in the Jefferson Parish Border with Orleans. Edwards won it with 57% of the votes on Saturday. That was impressive. Clinton won only 41% of the votes there in 2016. Heck, Edwards won a mere 51% when he won in 2015. "

We've seen that before Democrats regained the majority in Virginia State House and Senate earlier this month thanks to growth in the suburbs of Virginia and around Richmond." The elected Governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshear, crashed incumbent Matt Bevin (R), mainly due to its margins in the cities and suburbs The history of the 2018 national elections – and the democratization of the House of Representatives – was the prelude to the party's suburban districts in Florida, Pennsylvania and California.

It has long been widely recognized that nobody motivates the Republicans like Donald Trump But with results like those in Louisiana, Kentucky and Virginia, it also seems to be true that no one's democratic base – and the swing suburbs Vote – as motivated as Donald Trump state and f level in the first three years of Trump's presidency. And if it goes on, it could cost Trump a second term next November.


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