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Why John Bolton had to leave and what to expect next



For a while, the now ex-national security adviser, who was Trump's eye-catcher in his hard talk about Fox News, was useful to the president – he shared his desire to shake the globe.

But like everyone else, Bolton was welcome in Trump's dysfunctional foreign policy team, standing in the way of his boss's impetuous instincts and looking for some of the headlight.

Only in the bizarre Trump orbit could the emergence of a national security adviser be seen. Ideologues and aggressive hawks are to a certain extent seen as eliminating a stabilizing force. But he did have a look at American interests and the use of US power, which was predictable and logical and within the historical limits of US diplomacy.

With Trump gone, he could have more room to indulge in his more restrained instincts that rarely bring big talk into line with action. And US diplomacy is likely to more accurately reflect its lead author. It will be more impulsive, less strategic, and more focused on creating iconic moments, such as the President's walk to North Korea with Kim Jong Un.

Democratic MP John Garamendi welcomed Bolton's farewell in the face of his "radical" instincts, but warned against instability.

"This president has his own ideas, we often wonder what exactly this idea is … Chaos rules the day," said Garamendi, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, opposite Brooke Baldwin of CNN. [1

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Trump desperately in need of foreign victory

  At least 10 names as successor to John Bolton

Like everything in Trump's foreign policy, there is a political explanation for the recent storm, which shook the White House.

Trump's first term of office is successful in traumatizing US allies and causing disruption around the world, but the big gains the big dealmaker had promised in 2016 are largely absent.

North Korea does not denuclearize despite Trump's embrace. Iran is moving closer to building a nuclear bomb after Trump has withdrawn from an international nuclear deal. China is growing fast and Russia is recovering from interference in the US election.

That's a problem, as Trump is considering a weak record and looking for success – and longs for bullets such as a Nobel Peace Prize – that lie ahead of him The 2020 Election.

The President is on a dangerous political territory and is adopted in a new 39% CNN / SSRS poll. Only 36% of respondents said that they deserve re-election. Victories, which preferably bring positive media coverage, are therefore essential – and soon.

Trump's team may face difficulties in achieving major foreign policy breakthroughs in the absence of leverage or expertise. But sensational summits are just as well suited for a White House that even dissects Trump's routine meetings with foreign leaders into campaign highlights designed to distinguish him as a statesman.

"This probably indicates that Trump desperately wants to watch a series of events ahead of the Afghan elections, Iran and North Korea's cosmetics business by 2020, and Bolton's as a roadblock," said Colin Kahl, a former bankrupt Adjutant of the Obama administration, who was attached to the foreign affairs advocacy for America.

While Bolton knows how to blow things up – such as the Iranian nuclear deal – and increasingly blocked the president's photo-diplomacy

Recently, Bolton had objected to Trump's idea of ​​giving short to Taliban terrorists to bring to Camp David before 9/11 to reach an agreement to repatriate the troops.

And according to CNN sources, he said to Trump so to his face, in contradiction to a call from a president who demands obedience in a manner that is likely to shorten his term of office.

A victory for North Korea

  Trump is skeptical of using foreign spies for gathering information about enemy countries, sources say

Bolton's skepticism about Trump's infatuation with North Korea's Kim was also no secret. When Trump laid down his plan to visit his pen pal in the DMZ in June, Bolton set out for Mongolia. He contradicted the president by saying that the North's short-range missile tests violated United Nations resolutions. Pyongyang responded by calling it a "human defect."

And Trump's assumption of his harsh position for denuclearization seems to have at least been party to the collapse of the Hanoi summit earlier this year.

Indeed, Bolton's departure This is a victory for North Korea, which for months had been trying to beat a wedge between him and Trump via his official media. Coincidentally, the rogue race says it's ready to talk to the US again.

Bolton was also a problem for Trump when it came to Russia. While the president spent the recent G7 summit on leading Russian President Vladimir Putin to return to the club, Bolton never released his smoldering cold-war suspicions. A war with Iran threatens after a US drone hits the US Gulf of Oman was shot down.

After Trump has disappeared, he will have more room to realize his hopes for a breathtaking meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the United Nations General Assembly later this month.

Bolton is unlikely to stand by his sense of publicity and the long list of media contacts. It is unlikely that he mimics the dutiful but pregnant silence of former Defense Secretary James Mattis over Trump when he promotes his book.

Since Bolton looks back on his 19 months in the White House, he can claim several victories for his hardline school foreign policy. The Trump government banned a prosecutor of the International Criminal Court from visiting the United States. The United States also withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council. And under his observation, the US withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal.

And the former national security adviser might have succeeded in executing one of his last killings with the Taliban, whom critics consider a US capitulation to be a fig leaf.

But Bolton's strong support for a coup attempt in Venezuela by opposition leader Juan Guaido did not work and made the Trump administration stupid.

Ultimately, Bolton's departure is clearly a glimpse into the life of Trump's White House.

The time on the eve of the September 11 commemoration ceremony was also appropriate. Bolton was as good as the last remnant of the neo-conservative foreign-policy establishment that took power after the worst terrorist attack in the world.

Much of Trump's antipathy to foreign involvement – such as the Iraq invasion and America's longest war he seeks to end – stems from a policy that Bolton and his cohorts have introduced.

The current president does not seem to have an organized doctrine – aside from his "America First" mantra, which is largely an offshoot of his campaign rhetoric, which is rooted in the belief that the rest of the world is ripping America off forever.

Lucky Bolton is gone

  Trump is learning an age old lesson with the broken Afghan initiative

Bolton's personality conflict with Trump also provides insight into how this administration works.

He became the last foreign policy key-officer to cross an invisible one The red line for Trump – seems to have an agenda and power base that is different from the President's.

White House sources told CNN Tuesday that they believed that Bolton would provide press information about Trump's canceled plans to host the Taliban at Camp David.

Shortly after Trump fired Bolton, two of his former opponents, Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, could barely hide their smiles.

The two men also showed that they had learned the lessons of working for Trump, who Bolton apparently never took on – to calm down his wildest instincts and show no unfaithfulness. "We work very closely with the President of the United States," said Pompeo. Who is not so ideologically different from Bolton, but is Pole apart on how to deal with Trump will materially change, "he said.

Pompeo's comment reflected the reality that the rest of the world – especially the US and Trump allies – America's foreign policy does not follow a precedent, doctrine, or predictable course.

Trump says so at any point, and people who work for him can live with it or get out.


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