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Home / Business / Will Tesla's revenue decline in 2019 and tax credits and backlog be replenished?

Will Tesla's revenue decline in 2019 and tax credits and backlog be replenished?


Published on December 23, 2018 |
by Michael Barnard

23. December 2018 by Michael Barnard

There are two things that have caused some wind under Tesla's wing in 201

8: tax credits and pre-orders. Will the reduction in US tax credits in 2019 reduce Tesla's revenue? Will the pre-order stock be filled and demand dried up? That's not what the evidence suggests.

In the US, the Tesla Model 3 could only top 10 out of the fifth or sixth best-selling car overall, but there is little evidence that there is a significant global lack of demand. Residues and other factors point to a very strong 2019 year in the US and elsewhere.


Let's talk about the backlog for a minute. Bloomberg, Tesla will reach a total production of approximately 150,000 Model 3 Series models in 2018. The pre-orders amounted to about 455,000 after cancellations and were significantly higher than 400,000 by Tesla earlier this year.

Preorders for around 305,000 Model 3s are expected to be completed in 2019 worldwide.

About 50% of pre-orders were probably in the US. Most shipments in 2018 were in the US. Assuming 227,000 pre-orders in the US and 120,000 deliveries in the US, approximately 107,000 pre-orders in the US and 198,000 pre-orders from outside the US remain.

Global Demand

Around 200,000 pre-orders from the rest of the world are still in the pipeline, which does not receive the US federal tax credit. That's almost twice as much as the US pre-orders. The Tesla Model 3 continues to be sold around the world, where there is a lot of catching up to do and only a few tax credits need to be changed to hinder sales.

Word of mouth Demand

One thing many Tesla critics do not like or dislike. That's because people who drive Tesla talk a lot about them, people do test drives, and they publish a lot of videos and testimonials on social media. The number of executives in the auto industry being converted after a test drive is huge, and with so many Tesla Model 3s on the streets, many more people are driving test drives and raving about their cars and social media from friends and acquaintances.

Tesla spends a tiny fraction of what other companies do for advertising. Most cars that conform to the Tesla Model 3 will incur $ 2,500 to $ 3,500 in advertising as part of their basic costs. In 2016, Tesla spent $ 6 per car. All Tesla shown on a TV show or a movie were not a product placement, but the director's decision to present the vehicle for free. This does not apply to BMW, Audi and the like, who spend a lot of money on product placement and advertising.

One reason why Tesla does not need to advertise is the early sale of many cars to people with great talent, equipment and skills who do it for free. Some fan ads for Tesla are better than 90% of professionally created car ads.

If you sell more Tesla's, demand will not only be met, but demand will be created. This has been the case since the Tesla Model S and is now only true. There are still people who do not know what a Tesla is, but they will soon.

And Tesla just has to create a traditional advertising and social media platform, and the press will break out to spread it around the world. That costs far less than $ 2,500 per car. Tesla could increase its advertising budget by an order of magnitude to increase demand, yet spend much less than its competitors.

Tax Cut

The tax cut is only a matter for the US and only federal credit. This is a drop from $ 7,500 to $ 3,750 for the first six months of 2019 and then $ 1,875 for the last six months of 2019.

Tesla has slowly introduced the lower price than Tesla Model 3. The average price point for configured sales was over $ 50,000 early. The current base price is $ 45,000. The target price for 2019 is $ 35,000 and is expected to be available in the first six months of 2019.

This means that a lot of pre-orders will still receive a tax credit Tesla Model 3 to 2019, and they will end up being able to spend or infer the same amount of money as persons bought in 2018 to have.

And this does not apply to countries like California that double a tax credit

Does the change in the tax credit affect sales? Yes, the purchase price is still a problem with the sticker, despite lower operating costs. However, the cuts will be telegraphed and offset by price reductions. There are likely to be some pre-orders that are going down, but many people on the list are also people who pay close attention to the status of the tax credit and have decided in one way or another.

Risks for All US State Electric Vehicle Tax Benefits

While Tesla reaches the milestone of 200,000 electric cars sold in the US on the other line. GM is just behind and could be half a year back. Tesla has less credit for its Bolt models and other electrified models. Others have lagged behind so that they would benefit for years.

But Trump and his government have clearly signaled that they are meeting the fossil fuel industry's desire to cut off all tax credits for electric vehicles. This could happen as early as 2020.

GM, Tesla and Nissan are now campaigning for the conquest of the 200,000 barrier, as have some members of the congress.

Who will win? Hard to say, but the chances of Trump and his crew choosing to shit in EVs are higher than the alternative, especially now that GM has shut down US plants and Trump looked like an idiot as a Harley- Davidson. [19659007] All US citizens who want a Tesla and a tax credit will probably be shopping in 2019. The 107,000 pre-orders are only slightly less than those of Tesla, which were delivered to the US in 2018. They aim to reach 10,000 Model 3 a week in 2019. They are already at or over 6,000 a week. Assuming that they average 8,000 per week by 2018, that's over 400,000 cars.

Comparison with other providers

Tesla already sells more cars worldwide than Porsche or Jaguar. In 2019, it could surpass Volvo. Tesla was the # 4, # 5 or # 6 best selling car in the US in the 4th quarter of 2018 (every class).

The Tesla Model 3 Performance already sees very positive comparisons with the models BMW M3 to M5, the BMW M3 can no longer be sold in the EU, as BMW can not comply with EU emissions. The company is trying to commute to the M4, but has a lower price for a higher price.

People make the mistake of believing Tesla is only competing with third-party electrical offerings. No, it surpasses the combustion cars of other manufacturers in each category in which it is located.

Next model attracts attention and demand

The Tesla Model Y small crossover SUV, based on the Tesla Model 3 platform, has a launch date of March 2019. Tesla is also the pre-order book with a production target at this time from 2020.

In the US, sales of sedans other than Tesla declined. Crossover and SUV sales have increased. Tesla was in the opposite direction with its form factor and will be in vogue in 2019. Demand will be higher for the Model Y than for the Model 3, so all pre-orders will reappear.

Tesla is the only car company to receive extensive pre-orders for the upcoming models. They have to return to Mercedes in the '80s to find a vehicle that has more than a fraction of the pre-engineered demand.

And then there's the Tesla pickup, another category that the US loves and the rest of the world is scratching its head. Musk recently proposed an accelerated timeframe for this by working with existing Daimler components.


No, Tesla will not see a drop in sales in 2019. On the contrary. It is easy to see that demand will rise only in the US and globally by 2019.


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Tags: California, Chevy Bolt, Elon Musk, EV Tax Credit, GM, Nissan, Tax Credits, Tesla, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model 3 Reservations, Tesla Model 3 Sales, Tesla Model Y, Tesla Pickup, Tesla Tax Credit, US Tax Credit, US

About the Author

Michael Barnard is Chief Strategist at TFIE Strategy Inc. He works with start-ups, existing companies and investors to help us navigate our rapidly changing world Identify opportunities for significant growth and cost savings. He is editor of The Future is Electric, a medium publication. He regularly publishes low-carbon technology and policy analysis in locations such as Newsweek, Slate, Forbes, Huffington Post, Quartz, CleanTechnica, and RenewEconomy. His works are regularly recorded in textbooks. Third-party articles on his analysis and interviews have been published on dozens of news sites worldwide and ranked # 1 at Reddit Science. Many of his works are from Quora.com, where Mike has been a top writer since 2012. He is available for consulting assignments, lectures and board functions.

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