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Windblown Friday Signals Colder Front – NOAA Winter Outlook Details

Keep the press: Winter Outlook just released

Maybe it's the way we're wired – part of the human constitution. We tend to fear change, and there is a very real fear of the unknown. Take, for example, winter in Minnesota. "Paul, is it going to be a heavy winter this year?"

How about those Vikings? I'm sorry, I could not hear you when my teeth rattled.

You may find comfort in NOAA's last winter outlook. Based on a brewing El Nino mild phase in the Pacific Ocean, the odds favor a milder than average winter season for the northern and western US, including Minnesota ̵

1; with the largest warm bias for the Pacific Northwest.

Confidence is low, but an El Nino-winter often means stronger "zonal" winds that blow from Seattle and hold some of the coldest air north of Minnesota.

We will have snow. We will experience cool eye fronts. Will it be a tough, groundbreaking winter? The writing on the wall suggests no.

The arrival of a stormy clipper turns on the wind machine today; On Saturday, the piles of gravel race past your window, but next week it looks quiet, with heights near 50 degrees – a bit of rain until the end of next week.

File photo Above: NOAA

Mild winter for much of the USA Place your bets. Based on a brewery El Nino NOAA predicts a milder than average winter, with the best chances of a slight bias in the western US: " A mild winter could be NOAA for a large part of the United States this winter Climate Prediction Center In the US Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely in the northern and western US, Alaska and Hawaii, and El Nino has a 70- to 75-percent chance of developing Nino in late autumn to early Winter come, "said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center." Although a weak El Nino is expected, it can still affect the winter season by creating wetter conditions in the southern US and warmer, drier conditions in parts of the US Nordens … "

Whispers of El Nino? The winter precipitation forecast by NOAA (above) bears all the features of an El Nino – winter, with a wet bias from southern California to the deep south, and a slight dry dip for many northern states.

Saturday Coating? Blizzards are probably Saturday, even a few heavy snow showers. During the daylight hours, temperatures should be above 32F for most of the condition, but dusting or coating can not be ruled out in some places. Note the sea-effect snowbands that are created in the southeast of Lake Superior. Card: WeatherBell

Why am I showing this at all? The self-confidence is very low with the two-week GFS prediction of 500mb winds. Yesterday's solution has dug a large trough from the Great Lakes to much of the eastern US; Today's forecast shows a zonal solution for much of the US with a warm start to November. Place your bets.

Designers invent hurricane cards in a time of extreme weather . To this day, many people still misinterpret NHC's "Cone of Uncertainty," as MIT Technology Review's contribution states: "… First, it is assumed that the cone delineates the vulnerable area. Secondly People rarely realize that the cone represents a 67% confidence interval – a detail that is revealed in the map documentation and not on the map itself Thirdly, people often believe that the white and dotted regions mean something more B. the points Fourth, people do not understand the difference between watches and warnings, or one is heavier And finally people do not know what the letters in the black and white circles are mean – again, because an explanation does not appear on the map itself … "

image credits : Hurricane Ha rvey. NASA / NOAA GOES Project

Fighters devastated by Hurricane . How vulnerable is the military to extreme weather events in the US and abroad? Here is an excerpt from an Op-Ed from the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board: " Hurricane Michael has caused terrible damage in Florida last week, and that could include some of the world's most capable military aircraft – Air Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said on Sunday that the damage to one was an indefinite one: Force F-22 jet fighters, of all things, escape a storm? Answer: They miss the parts to be operational and stuck in hangars to hit Number of F-22s at Tyndall Air Force Base was "less than we had feared." But maintenance professionals need to make a detailed assessment before the Air Force can tell with certainty that the planes will fly again. A dozen aircraft were due to maintenance and security issues on the base. ..

Photo credit : " An aircraft hangar damaged by Hurricane Michael is seen at Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida, October 11 . " Photo: Jonathan Bachman / Reuters.

Hurricane Michael damage: Up to $ 3 billion in agricultural losses Georgias The storm was still a Category 3 hurricane as it entered southern Georgia, here an excerpt from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: " Hurricane Michael's damage to Georgian agriculture may be a new one Government estimates are close to $ 3 billion. "These are unprecedented generational losses that require unprecedented ideas and actions to help our peasant families and rural communities recover," Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black said in a statement. Wood losses alone are estimated at 1 billion since about 1 million acres were destroyed, state figures show. Cotton, peanuts, pecans, vegetables and poultry "Unfortunately, our worst thoughts have been realized," said Black. "We saw months and sometimes years of work laid on the ground in seconds …"

Death penalty by Michael Rises: Headlines and links about Climate Nexus: " The official death toll from Hurricane Michael rose to at least 26 English: www German: emagazine.credit-suisse.com/app/art … = 157 & lang = DE On Tuesday, saviors in Florida announced that they had found a number of other bodies, as cleanup and rescue efforts continue Florida officials say Bay County where the Storm landed first, had at least 12 dead and rescuers warned that more bodies could be found. Water recedes, dozens are still missing in the severely affected areas like Mexico Beach, as the cell service continues to be spotty and residents come back to The Tuesday's National Death Rate of the Storm Was 18 . (New York Times $, CNN, USA Today, AP. Background: Climate Signals)

Dr. Lackey said that he and Mr. King, who jointly own the house of Mexico Beach, do not even refer to the minimum wind resistance in Bay County The Sand Palace stood The house was built of poured concrete reinforced with steel cables and reinforcing steel, with additional concrete that reinforced the corners of the house.The space under the roof was minimized so that the wind could not sneak in and lift The elevation of the house should serve on high stakes to keep it above the seawater surge that normally accompanies severe hurricanes … "

image credits : " The elevated home, which the owners call Sand Palace on 36th Street in Mexico Beach, Florida, came almost unscathed by Hurricane Michael . " Credit Credit Johnny Milano for the New York Times

Tornadoes continue to spin in the US, and Scientists do not know why . Fluke or a trend? NBC News has the story: " In recent decades, tornadoes have shifted – they have declined in Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas, but in the states along the Mississippi and further east they have become stronger. Tornado activity is taking the most in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Ohio and Michigan, according to a study in the Wednesday's Climate and Atmospheric Science, with a slight decline in the Great Plains With the largest decline recorded in Central and Eastern Texas, Texas still retains most of the tornadoes of a state. ..

Photo credits : Bloomberg

Jamal Khashoggi : What The Arab World Needs Most Is Free Speech This is the last column that Jamal Khashoggi wrote for the Washington Post, b before he was murdered. Here is an excerpt from this column that has just been published: " I was recently online and read Freedom House's" Freedom in the World "2018 report, stating that it was just a country in Arabic gives world classified as "free." This nation is Tunisia, with Jordan, Morocco, and Kuwait in second place with a "partially free" classification, with the rest of the countries in the Arab world rated as "not free." The Arabs Those who live in these countries are either uninformed or misinformed and can not adequately address, let alone discuss, the problems that affect the region and their daily lives.A state narrative dominates the public psyche, and many do not believe it , a large majority of the population will be victims of this false narration Unfortunately, this situation is unlikely to change. ..

B ildnachweis : Jamal Khashoggi (Illustration by Alex Fine for The Wash (19659033) Nebraska's message for tourists: It's not for everyone. I have to thank them for their openness and honesty. Personally, I think it's brilliant. Here is a clip from AP: "… The slogan introduced by the Nebraska Tourism Commission at a conference in Nebraska City on Wednesday … State Tourism Director John Ricks told the Omaha World Herald that Nebraska was consistently there tourists are planning a visit, the marketing campaign has to be different. "In order to make people listen, you have to hang them somehow," said Ricks. "We had to shake people off ….

Photo credits : Adweek.

72 F .Maximum Temperature in Twin Cities Thursday.

57 F .Average high on October 18.

73 F [19459007HighonOctober182017

October 19, 2000 : The warmest October 19 in Minnesota history occurs for many cities. Many cities had highs in the 80s, with the Twin Cities 84th Appleton in Swift County b built from 90 degrees.

October 19, 1972 : A cold bang moves through Mi Nnesota, with lows of 1 above in Tower and 9 in St. Peter and Luverne.

October 19, 1916 : Redwood Falls receives a record-breaking 7 inches of snow.

FRIDAY: Early shower, a stormy day , Winds: NW 15-30. Height: 62

FRIDAY NIGHT : Mottled clouds, cold wind. Low: 34

SATURDAY : Breath of November. Gusty with thunderstorms. Winds: NW 15-30. High: 39

SUNDAY : Blue sky, gentler and gentler. Winch: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 29. High: 53

MONDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 40. High: 57

TUESDAY: Bright sunshine, less wind. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 33. High: 54

WEDNESDAY: The clouds are slowly getting bigger. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 36. High: 52

THURSDAY: Light rain and drizzle possible. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 38th High: 48

Photo courtesy by Pat Collins, a 7th-grade life science teacher in Lindstrom, Minnesota, of the Standing Cedars Community Land Conservancy near Osceola Wisconsin. 19659053] Climate stories ….

In North Carolina, hurricanes have what scientists could not do: Republicans convince that climate change is real. Will a new generation of super-tall storms convince skeptics that the weather will increasingly be disrupted by a wetter, more volatile climate? Here is an excerpt from the Washington Post: "… An Elon University survey in early October after Hurricane Florence revealed that 37 percent of Republicans believe that global warming" very likely "negatively impacts the coastal communities of North Carolina In the next 50 years, this is almost three times the Republican – 13 percent – who felt the same way in 2017. The proportion of Republicans who believed that climate change would not harm the coastal communities of the state had fallen by 10 points in the past year – from 41 percent in 2017 to 31 percent now. "This suggests that there is a very large minority in the Republican Party that is at least willing to accept that climate change is a possibility," said Jason Husser, a political scientist who directs the Elon survey: "He signals a kind of turning point …"

image credits : " A man crosses a flooded road in downtown Wilmington, N.C., after Hurricane Florence landed on September 14 . "(Chuck Burton / Associated Press)

The hurricanes and climate change issues continue, yes they are interconnected. The New York Times blends the dots:" Scientists are increasingly aware of the interrelationships between global warming and global warming Hurricanes sure: Hurricanes get stronger in a warming world, for one simple reason: warmer water provides more energy to feed Hurricanes and other extreme storms also become wet, for one simple reason: warmer air keeps more moisture, and storm surges of hurricanes become worse, for a simple reason that has nothing to do with the storms themselves: sea levels are The researchers can not say, however, that global warming is responsible for the peculiarities of the recent storm, Hurricane Michael, which has sustained winds of 155 Rose to category 4 miles per hour when he met the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday]

Photo credits : " A storm hunter came back to pick up his belongings after rubble collapsed in his car on Wednesday in Panama City, Florida.

" Gerald Herbert / Associated ed Printing

Edited by Michael: Climate threat to combat aircraft at coastal bases. The New York Times has the story:" … Michael's Devastation of Tyndall raises the question of how well the bases are defended against the elements. "This threat is not new to the military – they have talked about climate change for decades – and they are generally learning from the recent storm," said Lieutenant General Arlen D. Jameson, who retired from the Air Force and was a former deputy commander of the United States Strategic Command. "The problem is" The lessons learned could be almost too painful to wait for the next lesson. "Several factors have led to it that one-tenth of the F-22 fleet was at risk in Hurricane Michael, and the sophisticated jets are known to be spirited and ready to fire at any time Only about half of them are operational, according to a recent Air Force report: The storm surfaced and developed rapidly, allowing crews to warn only a few days to fly as many aircraft as possible , ,

Photo credit : " Hurricane Michael caused catastrophic damage to the US Air Force base in Panama, Florida. Published on . Image of Terray Sylvester / Reuters.

Climate Action Measures: What do you prefer? Which policy will (more) push the needle towards sustainable, cleaner, renewable technologies? "A price for carbon, um to set a definable, predictable signal in the markets? Something else? Here is an excerpt from Countable: "… It is important that carbon pricing models are technology neutral, and they are aimed directly at the real problem – carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to the warming of the atmosphere – rather than a specific solution such as solar cells or smart meters The approach therefore encourages the market to develop the best possible tools and systems for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.The US pioneered market-based approaches to pollution.A program for controlling sulfur dioxide, which is the cause of acid rain, was set up in 1990 by a congress created and created by President George HW Jack, the emissions were cut approximately twice as fast as predicted, at a fraction of the cost of conventional regulation … "

Warmer autumnal nights. Climate Central writes about the trends: " Warm autumn nights are more than just a delay when it comes to taking off comfy sweaters and drinking hot cider." The lack of cool nights effectively extends the summer Year also comes later: while warm-weather fans can party, this also means that disease-transmitting pests such as mosquitoes and ticks persist longer before dying in winter. At national level, the long-term warming trend has prolonged the increase compared to the early 20's. By two weeks, the allergy season is getting longer and the ragweed pollen will not disappear until the first frost in autumn. Each ragweed plant can produce up to a billion pollen grains, which can cause sneezing, itchy eyes and worsening asthma conditions Asthma peaks during high periods n pollen concentrations. ..

Trump slightly corrects his views on climate change . The Atlantic has the story – here is an excerpt: "… On Sunday evening, President Trump made it clear in a detailed 60 Minutes interview that he no longer believes that climate change is a hoax." I think something happens. "He told journalist Lesley Stahl:" Something is changing and it will change again. I do not think it's a hoax. I think there's probably a difference, but I do not know it's man-made. "Say that," he continued, "I do not want to spend trillions and trillions of dollars, I do not want to lose millions and millions of jobs. I do not want to be penalized. .. "19659003] Picture credits :" President Trump held a press conference when Hurricane Michael hit land last week . " Jonathan Ernst / Reuters.

Answer To President Trump's comments from the American Meteorological Society:

Mediterranean World Heritage Site at Risk of Coastal Flooding and Erosion Due to Sea Level Rise . Here is a recent publication by Nature Communications: " World Heritage Sites (WHS), located in coastal areas, are increasingly threatened by coastal hazards due to sea-level rise, in which we assess desert areas threatened by coastal areas, floods and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios to 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows WHS to be ranked at both coastal hazards, here 49 cultural WHS in 37 coastal waters located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, There is already a risk of a 100-year flood and of coastal erosion today, with flood risk increasing by 50% and erosion risk by 13% by 2100. These results provide a preliminary assessment of where adaptation is most needed and can the policy makers assist in the control of local research to develop appropriate adaptation strategies for each W. HS … "

Card credit: UNESCO.

Book your holiday now: Book your tickets soon, according to Climate Nexus, which leads to the following headings / links: " Some of the most important historical sites in the world, including the Canals of Venice, the old town Dubrovnik in Croatia and numerous Roman ruins are seriously threatened by unchecked climate change, according to new research, a study published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications notes that out of the 49 UNESCO World Heritage sites in the Mediterranean, 40 are susceptible to the consequences "It's our heritage – things that are signs of our civilization," said Washington Post lead author Lena Reimann, "It can not really be expressed in numbers. It is more an ethical question, a moral question. We will not be able to replace them as soon as they are lost . "(Washington Post $, CNN, New York Times)

Miami meteorologist John Morales is looking for something higher – a big compliment to Mr. Morales for connecting the dots and speaking the truth to the Force Here's an excerpt from HuffPost: "… The explanation of climate change and its effects on the weather will become even more urgent and painful, especially in Miami , For the moment, anthropogenic warming remains the context for how storms fit in However, the impact of climate change is already there: a study published in April showed that home values ​​begin to suffer along the coveted Miami Waterfront: King tides, a name for exceptionally high tides, flood the city even on sunny days . And even if, on the road, scientists and politicians find a safe and reliable way to use geoengineering – chemically cooling the environment, sucking carbon dioxide out of the air, or spraying light-reflecting aerosols – that will not help Miami. The city is porous Limestone The water does not just come from the shore, it rises from below the city itself. "This is an existent danger," he said. "One day we'll have to retire from Miami Beach but nobody gives him any serious thought …"

IPCC Report: By Climatology to reality. Here's a link to an interview I gave to Ali Velshi on MSNBC Sunday morning from Washington DC: " Hurricane Michael Havoc highlights climate change with meteorologist Paul Douglas to Ali Velshi:" We had four categories 4 or more hurricane strikes in the US in the last 14 months "due to" additional greenhouse gas warming . "

Is extreme weather becoming more common? A SciLine Perspective: "… The scientific consensus is" yes ", although details vary from region to region around the globe Among the documented increases: since 1991, the number of extreme rains in the US increased by more than 30 percent compared to the average from 1901 to 1960, which contributed to increased floods: extreme heat waves and droughts in Europe have more than doubled since 1980. Atlantic hurricane frequency, intensity (category 4 and 5 storms) and duration have increased significantly since the early 1980s, the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storm over the years 2000 to 2013 increased by about 50 percent over the long-term average (1966 to 2009) … "

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Autumn break: 60s today – Flurries Expected Saturday

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