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Winter storm threat continues in the south and southeast



3:35 pm Update

Good Saturday … Again. The new NAM is in and I wanted to add it to this post as the winter storm continues north and west and the sands of snow rise …

I see the NWS in Jackson having a winter weather consultation instead of a winter storm watch. This is a big head scratch !!

Beware,

PREVIOUS UPDATE

Good Saturday, all together. A winter storm continues to target parts of the bluegrass. As this storm continues to hit southern and southeastern Kentucky with the greatest impact, the models slowly creep back north and west. This is a trend that we need to watch closely throughout the day to see if it lasts.

Our winter storm threat is likely to be updated to an alarm today, and I suspect that winter storm watches and winter weather recommendations will appear early today for some areas …

I got a first call for ice cream and last night Snowfall on WKYT TV made. That was before the full series of 0z models came …

These numbers and lines should NOT be appended as I will postpone them a few times today as I have a better understanding of how that shakes off. I foresee some problems:

  • Icy rain and sleet make the snowfall part of the program more difficult. Areas where there is more freezing rain or sleet will obviously have less snow and vice versa.
  • The northern and western edges of the snow and the ice-cold rain shield are likely to be sharply cut. To be honest, I'm not sure where this is set up.
  • Precipitation can creep in the extreme south and southwest a little earlier today. With the onset of precipitation, the temperatures drop quickly.
  • The whole mess has the opportunity to go further north and west, and this, as I said on Thursday, is a concern of mine.
  • None of this carved in stone. (DRINK!)
  • Please do not pay attention to automated forecasts as they appear in apps. They have no human intervention and will vary wildly from hour to hour.

Learn about the latest computer forecasting models. At the moment many of them are leaning towards what they had shown a day or two ago. That's why I did not knee-jerk when the ship jumped on Friday.

The new version of the GFS lies further north and west with the shielding shield …

Here is the snowfall map of this run …

You can also view the fairly large area see the freezing rain …

The Canadian model is very similar …

[19659004] The snow map has a more widespread action that goes quite far to the north in the east … [19659004]

The short-haul version of the Canadian was the only model not to jump a ship on early Friday. It was the first to show a stronger North and West system, and it did not falter …

This model has a little less snow than the main Canadian model but much more freezing rain … [19659004]

This frozen rain signature is also quite strong on the Hi Res NAM in the south …

The regular NAM lies further south and southeast with the icy cold rain and snow … [19659004]

This snow map is similar to the European model, but both models had had a satisfying bust on Friday in Kentucky somewhere in Kentucky. Both tend slowly north and west. Here is the Euro …

Again we have time for quite significant adjustments to the forecast.

Of course, I will receive more updates later today. Here is a regional radar to track an increase in action in our south and southwest …

Have a nice Saturday and see to it.



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