Home / World / Xi Jinping begins his most important year at his weakest point

Xi Jinping begins his most important year at his weakest point

Just a few months earlier, he was named Secretary-General of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the country's most powerful position. Now he had a second term as President of the Nation and secured the abolition of the term limits for the post, which enabled him to rule for life. Only two members of the National People's Congress voted against the change from 2,980.

Nine months later storm clouds gather.

China's economy has stalled in the face of ongoing US Secretary of Commerce Donald Trump's trade war, and tensions with Washington have spread to political and military issues.

There were even rumors that Xi himself was being criticized behind closed doors "I do not think Xi's position is in any way in danger, but he has many enemies and critics, and his collapsing relationship with the US is a stick, they can use. "

beat him, "said Richard McGregor, senior executive of the Australian Lowy Institute, to CNN.

Unfortunately for Xi, trade issues may well come before his perhaps most important year.The Chinese leader must meet a number of critical and controversial deadlines At the same time, the clock is ticking on its truce with Trump during their personal talks in early December in Argentina, which had only two months left to complete the divide

Xi's handling of events in 201

9 could determine the future of the Chinese economy and its place in the US Pantheon the leader of the Communist Party.

Communist heritage

Every ten years a Rei creates important or controversial anniversaries a perfect storm for Beijing.

For Xi and the Communist Party, the 70th Party The anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China on October 1 represents an important opportunity.

The Party will celebrate both its economic success and its unexpected longevity surpassing the lifespan of the Soviet Union, the former communist superpower that collapsed in 1991 after 69 years.

Rana Mitter, director of Oxford University's University China Center, told CNN that Beijing will focus on glorifying the situation in the run-up to the Jubilee leaders of the communist revolution.

"Xi will seek to tie his current achievements to her legacy," he said.

  Communist leaders Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai, four years before the founding of the People's Republic of China, were introduced. Experts say Xi will try to tie his legacy to the former Chinese leaders.

This year also marks the 100th anniversary of the May 4 student protests in China, which were mainly a reaction to the Allied betrayal in the country's Versailles treaty after the First World War – but the Communist Party now claims to be a precursor to their own creation.

  China has unleashed an economic miracle - now there is a battle for its legacy

Anniversaries for the Chinese government are not just related to festivities and ceremonies. They are often used as highly symbolic milestones for progress or new policy.

For example, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party in 2021 was defined as the time when China should establish a "moderately prosperous society"

"There is a sense that there is a settlement will be a calculation of how the first 70 years have passed, and plans for the next 70 years, "said Mitter.

  Xi stands in a car reviewing the army during a parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender during the Second World War in Beijing in 2015.


Not all important dates next year will be the occasion to celebrate – there are some Xi, ie e would rather forget the world.

June 4th marks 30 years The Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing, which in 1989 may have claimed thousands of civilian deaths following protests by democracy throughout the city.

There are few sensitive events in China and no one on the mainland will seize the opportunity publicly. Any attempt to do so will be quickly stopped.

"As in recent years, most of the evidence of the event is causing the censors to break up and possibly even lead to arrests," said Jeff Wasserstrom, Professor of History at UC Irvine, CNN.

"While images of a man standing in front of a tank line are shown and described in various newspapers outside the mainland, even the word" today "can be treated as subversive content on the Chinese Internet." [19659015] A Chinese man stands alone to block a number of tanks on Beijing's Cangan Blvd heading east. on Tiananmen Square on June 5, 1989. "src-mini =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/181226050357-01-tiananmen-square-file-restricted-small-169.jpg " src-xsmall = "// cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/181226050357-01-tiananmen-square-file-restricted-medium-plus-169.jpg" src-small = "http: // cdn. cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/181226050357-01-tiananmen-square-file-restricted-large-169.jpg "src-medium =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/181226050357-01 -tiananmen-square-file-restricted-exlarge-169.jpg "src-large =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/181226050357-01-tiananmen-square-file-restricted-super-169. jpg "src-full16x9 =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/181226050357-01-tiananmen-square-file-restricted-full-169.jpg "src-mini1x1 =" // cdn.cnn. com / cnnnext / dam / assets / 181226050357-01-tiananmen-square-file-restricted-small-11.jpg "data-demand-load =" not-loaded "data-eq-pts =" mini: 0, xsmall: 221, small: 308, medium: 461, large: 781 "/>

This year is also 20 years since Beijing's brutal crackdown on Falun Gong practitioners began and the Dalai Lama 60 Having escaped to Tibet for many years was an opportunity the government would hope to go unrecognized.

But not only sensitive data will be a headache for Xi in 2019. After decades of unprecedented growth across multiple fronts, the economy slows down. [19659002] Attempts to cope with rising debt across the country have led to a slowdown in infrastructure and investment spending, while GDP growth has also slowed.

Even the generally relentlessly positive official statements of the Communist Party are characterized by an increasingly bleak language. The announcement from the December high-level conference on central economic work spoke of "profound changes in the external environment," adding that the party had "worked hard on difficulties." In the Communist party bureaucracy, this is the equivalent of a warning suit.

"These achievements were won hard," it said. As China's undisputed leader in all economic matters, XI's job will be to turn the ship around.

  China's President Xi Jinping arrives at a celebration meeting on the occasion of China's 40th Anniversary of Reform and Opening in Beijing on December 18. [19459010

"The Chinese would be in trouble again"

While Xi faces major domestic problems and challenges in 2019, external factors may be the most serious factors.

Beijing is in turmoil in the US on various fronts, from business to politics and military.

  US indictment of Chinese hackers in a global system for business and the military

In the course of 2018, Trump steadily increased US tariffs on Chinese goods worth hundreds of billions of dollars and called on Beijing to cease its massive fiscal support for industrial research and development

Currently, the trade war is over after personal negotiations between Trump and Xi suspended until 1 March. The Chinese president has a stressful start to the year – the attempt to appease the US without giving up too much.

Even if Xi can end the trade crisis, the Trump government has opened new fronts in its disputes with Beijing. This includes a growing presence in the South China Sea and a rebound against Chinese economic espionage.

There was evidence that Xi might not expect a quick resolution to the dispute with Trump. In an important speech in the Great Hall of the People on December 18, he seemed to be trying to prepare his native audience for a lengthy dispute in which he warned that size could be achieved through "hardship."

Cables broke the New York Times, revealing details of a China summit with the European Union, quoted Xi as saying, "China was under blockade due to poverty and misery, and the Chinese would be in trouble again."

Wasserström told Trump's opposition China's economic development could be the only silver in a difficult situation for Xi.

"Economic times are getting tougher in China and this leads to dissatisfaction, but now there is the opportunity to blame many of these tough times for the US," he said.

Trouble Brewing

Ironically, it was Xi's victory by abolishing the president's term, which made him vulnerable as the trade war intensified.

In the last two years power in China has been slightly concentrated in the hands of the Communist Party. Within the party, Xi has clearly consolidated its control.

Nowhere was this more evident than in the abolition of transit time limits. By positioning himself so clearly at the top of the pyramid, he said that Xi has been exposed to criticism when things go wrong.

  Xi Jinping promises miracles but fails to provide accurate information

"The party secretary is responsible for relations with responsible for the United States and the way he ran off the rails, Xi puts a lot of criticism. " McGregor, The Australian China expert told CNN.

In Beijing, the impression is growing that the Chinese government has underestimated Trump for believing the US leader is in control after conducting a Charm offensive in 2017.

Trump's crackdown on China has led its leaders to rethink their stance on international diplomacy. In recent years, some of Xi's rigorous rhetoric and aggressive attitude have been called into question.

Meanwhile, the economic liberals are starting the Chinese government's Trump tariffs as an excuse for greater liberalization of the Chinese economy, contrary to Xi's desire for greater state and party control.

On the way to the new year, the Chinese leader must maintain a delicate balance between reconciliation, patriotism and market awareness, reforms and state control with increasing pressure on him.

If Xi can not successfully lead his country through the coming issues, his dreams could be shortened by a long spell at the top, Mitter said. "Make this possible."

Having more than two terms does not mean that the person has more than two terms, "he said.

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